DAL beat MIN 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.70 expected goals to 3.07. R. Hintz led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Boldy had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. J. Oettinger stopped 32 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 15:01DALW. JohnstonPP0.03 xG
- 2nd 15:59DALM. Duchene0.12 xG
- 3rd 19:17DALM. MarchmentEN0.74 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.07 xGDAL 4.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:07 | 3:54 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:33 | 4:04 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | 3:53 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:06 | 4:18 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:15 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:55 | 1:56 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 1:25 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 1:35 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 29:45 | 2:49 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:18 | 0:28 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 21:20 | 2:01 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 58:50 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:20 | 2:21 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 2:06 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 3:28 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:35 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:02 | 3:07 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:53 | 1:38 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:49 | 1:31 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:10 | 3:14 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:05 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:05 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:05 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:04 | 4:17 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:36 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:33 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 32 | 32 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.7, DAL 3.3 | MIN 0, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.1, DAL 29.4 | MIN 32, DAL 29 |
| Win chance | DAL 60% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.8 | 7 | 0.76 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.6 | 3 | 0.99 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.4 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.4 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.3 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 1 | 0.81 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.9 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.6 | 5 | 0.63 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.5 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.2 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN B. Gaunce | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.