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Game Recap
MIN2
DAL5
DAL beat MIN 5-2, with the chances close: 3.75 expected goals to 3.08. MIN outshot DAL 41 to 25. R. Hintz led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Boldy had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. J. Oettinger stopped 39 of 41.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| DAL | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 5:37DALE. Lindell0.02 xG
- 1st 16:18DALW. JohnstonPP0.18 xG
- 2nd 1:31DALM. DuchenePP0.14 xG
- 3rd 3:50MINM. BoldyPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 13:04MINK. KaprizovPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 18:18DALR. FaksaEN0.89 xG
- 3rd 19:50DALR. HintzEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
MINDAL
41Shots on goal25
3.08Expected goals3.75
67Shot attempts49
335v5 shots on goal17
2/4Power play2/2
26Hits15
16Blocked shots17
11Penalty minutes25
11Giveaways15
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.08 xGDAL 3.75 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:42 | 5:25 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:57 | 5:25 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:02 | 5:08 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 21:03 | 3:43 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:44 | 2:08 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:15 | 1:05 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:37 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:37 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:08 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:57 | 5:25 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:27 | 0:37 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 5 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 57:33 | Loss |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:18 | 1:53 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:16 | 1:53 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:35 | 1:53 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:39 | 1:53 |
| R. Faksa | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:32 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:32 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:32 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:32 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:39 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 24:38 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:54 | 0:32 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:42 | 1:53 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 41 | 39 | 2 | .951 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1M. Boldy17:24K. Kaprizov16:50M. Rossi13:06
Line 2M. Foligno13:42Y. Trenin14:06R. Hartman14:10
Line 3V. Hinostroza8:39L. Ohgren9:59D. Yurov8:08
Line 4V. Tarasenko8:27J. Ek13:53M. Johansson9:05
Pair 2J. Spurgeon17:18J. Middleton12:27
Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:36Z. Buium13:27
DAL
Line 1R. Hintz15:36M. Rantanen18:01J. Robertson16:06
Line 2M. Duchene9:13T. Seguin13:50W. Johnston16:26
Line 3R. Faksa11:47N. Bastian6:39C. Blackwell9:14
Line 4M. Bourque11:59S. Steel10:51
Pair 1E. Lindell17:10M. Heiskanen17:23
Pair 2N. Lundkvist18:25T. Harley16:19
Pair 3A. Petrovic11:39L. Bichsel17:47
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, DAL 3.3 | MIN 2, DAL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 28.2, DAL 28.7 | MIN 41, DAL 25 |
| Win chance | DAL 58% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.6 | 6 | 1.17 | 2 | 41% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.4 | 10 | 0.94 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.1 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 5 | 1.14 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.7 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.5 | 5 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.3 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.3 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.3 | 4 | 0.88 | 3 | 33% | 1 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.1 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.6 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Buium | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.