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Game Recap
MIN4
DAL5
DAL beat MIN 5-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.17 expected goals to 2.97. MIN outshot DAL 31 to 20. M. Zuccarello led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Eriksson Ek had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Oettinger stopped 27 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| DAL | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 4:26DALW. Johnston0.21 xG
- 1st 13:02MINQ. Hughes0.13 xG
- 1st 19:44MINK. KaprizovPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 6:39MINK. KaprizovPP0.53 xG
- 2nd 8:03DALC. Blackwell0.20 xG
- 2nd 16:16DALC. Hughes0.59 xG
- 2nd 19:49MINR. HartmanPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 4:28DALM. Rantanen0.11 xG
- 3rd 10:35DALJ. Robertson0.10 xG
Team Stats
MINDAL
31Shots on goal20
2.97Expected goals2.17
60Shot attempts39
205v5 shots on goal17
3/5Power play0/1
25Hits18
11Blocked shots13
12Penalty minutes20
8Giveaways12
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.97 xGDAL 2.17 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 4:34 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:00 | 4:59 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:47 | 5:03 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:37 | 0:23 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:10 | 4:45 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 1:15 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:09 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 31:51 | 5:08 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:34 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 20 | 15 | 5 | .750 | 58:15 | Loss |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 17:42 | 0:54 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 16:53 | 0:54 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:54 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Hughes | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:54 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 2 | 25:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 25:17 | 0:54 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 22:38 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:25 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello13:08K. Kaprizov15:15R. Hartman12:53
Line 2V. Tarasenko12:06Y. Trenin12:53D. Yurov14:09
Line 3M. Johansson11:45M. Boldy11:56J. Ek10:29
Line 4N. Foligno10:08M. Foligno10:31M. McCarron9:47
Pair 2J. Brodin14:38J. Spurgeon14:42
Pair 3J. Petry12:04J. Middleton11:09
DAL
Line 1M. Rantanen13:19W. Johnston13:25J. Hryckowian13:47
Line 2J. Robertson13:21M. Bourque17:00M. Duchene12:15
Line 4C. Hughes8:57O. Bäck10:20C. Blackwell7:46
Pair 2L. Bichsel18:26I. Lyubushkin18:03
Pair 3E. Lindell18:10M. Heiskanen5:45
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.9, DAL 3.1 | MIN 4, DAL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.6, DAL 27.0 | MIN 31, DAL 20 |
| Win chance | DAL 54% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.7 | 2 | 1.14 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 2.9 | 4 | 0.99 | 2 | 38% | 2 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.5 | 4 | 0.79 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 3 | 0.89 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 1 | 1.09 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.3 | 2 | 0.92 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.3 | 6 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 2.0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 1.8 | 1 | 0.71 | 3 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.4 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL A. Hyry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL T. Myers | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. McCarron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.0 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN N. Foligno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Petry | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.