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Game Recap
MIN6
DAL1
MIN beat DAL 6-1, with the chances close: 2.18 expected goals to 2.68. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Boldy had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Wallstedt stopped 27 of 28.
Team Stats
MINDAL
29Shots on goal28
2.18Expected goals2.68
44Shot attempts54
215v5 shots on goal17
2/4Power play1/4
49Hits39
17Blocked shots7
10Penalty minutes10
8Giveaways14
3Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.18 xGDAL 2.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:05 | 4:42 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:58 | 4:40 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:50 | 4:42 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:41 | 4:19 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:54 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 1:03 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:14 | 1:14 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 24:35 | 0:38 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 24:30 | 5:08 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:35 | 0:11 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 1:14 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:44 | 6:38 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:56 | 6:41 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 21:22 | 6:34 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:07 | 6:41 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:59 | 0:30 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:23 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:55 | 1:28 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:55 | 6:41 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:18 | 0:23 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:23 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:03 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 28 | 23 | 5 | .821 | 58:34 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello12:22K. Kaprizov12:26R. Hartman14:24
Line 2Y. Trenin12:48V. Tarasenko12:54D. Yurov10:02
Line 3M. Johansson10:31J. Ek10:51M. Boldy10:41
Line 4M. Foligno9:19M. McCarron8:45N. Foligno9:18
Pair 2J. Spurgeon14:50J. Brodin16:41
Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:33J. Middleton10:40
DAL
Line 1M. Rantanen13:41W. Johnston13:43S. Steel13:12
Line 2M. Bourque15:29M. Duchene12:40J. Robertson11:52
Line 3J. Benn10:18J. Hryckowian11:07O. Bäck7:48
Line 4R. Faksa8:34C. Blackwell8:13A. Erne7:55
Pair 1T. Harley16:21N. Lundkvist16:55
Pair 2E. Lindell15:24M. Heiskanen12:19
Pair 3T. Myers13:41L. Bichsel14:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.9, DAL 3.1 | MIN 6, DAL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.3, DAL 26.7 | MIN 29, DAL 28 |
| Win chance | DAL 55% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.3 | 6 | 1.08 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.0 | 2 | 1.01 | 3 | 39% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.7 | 8 | 0.81 | 3 | 29% | 2 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.4 | 1 | 0.97 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.4 | 5 | 0.62 | 3 | 22% | 2 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.2 | 3 | 1.06 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.9 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 1.9 | 1 | 0.72 | 3 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.8 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 1.8 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL T. Myers | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN M. McCarron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN N. Foligno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.