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Game Recap
MIN2
DAL4
DAL beat MIN 4-2, with the chances close: 2.81 expected goals to 2.98. B. Faber led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Faber had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Oettinger stopped 28 of 30.
Team Stats
MINDAL
30Shots on goal32
2.98Expected goals2.81
56Shot attempts64
195v5 shots on goal25
0/4Power play2/5
35Hits27
16Blocked shots14
14Penalty minutes12
12Giveaways11
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.98 xGDAL 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:43 | 6:12 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 21:35 | 4:11 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:22 | 5:42 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:07 | 5:43 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:45 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:01 | 2:45 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 1:39 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:42 | 1:15 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:02 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 28:35 | 5:59 |
| B. Faber | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 26:42 | 1:32 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:01 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:49 | 0:36 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:04 | Loss |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 | 5:27 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:17 | 4:55 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 19:12 | 5:27 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 4:55 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:50 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:14 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:47 | 0:32 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:18 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:14 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:32 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 26:06 | 5:27 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:16 | 0:50 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 19:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:14 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1J. Ek12:27M. Boldy14:31M. Johansson13:01
Line 2V. Tarasenko12:03R. Hartman12:41K. Kaprizov16:42
Line 3B. Brink10:48D. Yurov8:55N. Foligno7:46
Line 4M. Foligno8:45M. McCarron9:20Y. Trenin3:02
Pair 2J. Spurgeon14:35J. Brodin14:54
Pair 3Z. Bogosian10:22J. Middleton9:04
DAL
Line 1M. Rantanen13:13W. Johnston12:29J. Hryckowian11:22
Line 3M. Duchene10:56M. Bourque11:29J. Robertson11:15
Line 4R. Faksa8:03O. Bäck7:41C. Blackwell6:45
Pair 1E. Lindell15:18M. Heiskanen16:00
Pair 2T. Harley16:19N. Lundkvist12:48
Pair 3T. Myers12:34L. Bichsel14:03
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.9, DAL 3.1 | MIN 2, DAL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.4, DAL 26.7 | MIN 30, DAL 32 |
| Win chance | DAL 54% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.3 | 5 | 1.07 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 2.9 | 2 | 1.02 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.8 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.4 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.4 | 6 | 0.87 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.3 | 1 | 0.95 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.2 | 1 | 1.07 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 1 | 0.85 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.9 | 6 | 0.43 | 2 | 10% | 2 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 1.8 | 5 | 0.66 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN B. Brink | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL A. Hyry | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL T. Myers | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN M. McCarron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 4 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN N. Foligno | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.