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Game Recap
MIN4
DAL2
MIN beat DAL 4-2, with the chances close: 3.14 expected goals to 2.42. K. Kaprizov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Boldy had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. J. Wallstedt stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 3:51MINM. Zuccarello0.41 xG
- 1st 8:58DALM. HeiskanenPP0.04 xG
- 2nd 19:28MINM. BoldyPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 7:47MINM. McCarron0.14 xG
- 3rd 16:39DALJ. Robertson0.15 xG
- 3rd 18:00MINK. KaprizovEN0.39 xG
Team Stats
MINDAL
28Shots on goal22
3.14Expected goals2.42
48Shot attempts71
155v5 shots on goal16
1/3Power play1/4
24Hits20
26Blocked shots9
10Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways14
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.14 xGDAL 2.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:09 | 3:47 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 3:56 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:59 | 3:47 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:09 | 0:50 |
| M. McCarron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:43 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:16 | 3:56 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:59 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:05 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9:44 | 0:45 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:53 | 3:56 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | +2 | 2 | 18:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:10 | 0:59 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 21:29 | 0:07 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 7:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:47 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:07 | 6:01 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:32 | 6:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:52 | 5:57 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:47 | 5:55 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:09 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:05 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:06 | 1:27 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28:22 | 5:17 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:53 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:04 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 55:28 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1K. Kaprizov13:34M. Zuccarello12:21R. Hartman14:17
Line 2J. Ek11:29M. Boldy11:12M. Johansson9:44
Line 3V. Tarasenko11:21M. McCarron11:04Y. Trenin12:00
Line 4N. Foligno10:08M. Foligno10:11B. Brink8:59
Pair 2Z. Bogosian12:28J. Middleton13:30
Pair 3J. Spurgeon17:37J. Brodin7:15
DAL
Line 1W. Johnston14:53M. Rantanen14:44J. Hryckowian13:40
Line 2M. Duchene12:09J. Robertson15:20M. Bourque14:45
Line 3C. Blackwell7:29R. Faksa7:04O. Bäck9:11
Pair 2L. Bichsel13:05I. Lyubushkin12:22
Pair 3E. Lindell15:35M. Heiskanen16:42
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.0, DAL 3.3 | MIN 4, DAL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.6, DAL 28.6 | MIN 28, DAL 22 |
| Win chance | DAL 55% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.7 | 5 | 1.17 | 2 | 40% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.5 | 7 | 0.99 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 4 | 1.19 | 3 | 43% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.1 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.8 | 0 | 0.98 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.7 | 2 | 1.10 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.5 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.5 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.4 | 2 | 1.13 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 2.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.0 | 0 | 0.95 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 1.8 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL T. Myers | 1.5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN B. Brink | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL A. Hyry | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. McCarron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.3 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN N. Foligno | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.