Game Recap: MIN 5, FLA 1, October 22, 2024

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Game Recap

MIN5

FinalTue, Oct 22, 2024Every game that night

FLA1

MIN beat FLA 5-1, with the chances close: 2.00 expected goals to 2.07. J. Middleton led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). M. Johansson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. F. Gustavsson stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	2	3	0	5
FLA	0	1	0	1

1st 11:40MINM. Rossi0.07 xG
1st 12:02MINM. Johansson0.10 xG
2nd 2:40MINM. BoldyPP0.11 xG
2nd 11:19FLAS. Bennett0.17 xG
2nd 13:58MINM. Zuccarello0.10 xG
2nd 16:05MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.05 xG

Team Stats

MINFLA

22Shots on goal25

2.00Expected goals2.07

45Shot attempts60

215v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play0/0

26Hits55

20Blocked shots12

0Penalty minutes4

8Giveaways8

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.00 xGFLA 2.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN22 on goal, 5 scored

FLA25 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	21:00	1:43
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	16:42	1:43
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	1	2	1	4	1	+2	16:38	1:43
M. Boldy	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	16:32	1:43
M. Rossi	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	16:42	1:06
M. Johansson	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+2	14:00	1:06
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	15:30	0:53
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	14:42	1:05
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	13:51	0:55
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:11	0:53
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	12:48	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	11:03	1:04
J. Middleton	D	0	3	3	0	0	3	+3	20:54	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	+1	21:32	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	22:57	1:43
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	21:02	0:54
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	15:37	0:56
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:19	1:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	25	24	1	.960	60:00	Win
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	2	5	0	-1	0	16:49	0:00
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	5	2	0	-1	0	15:56	0:00
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	4	4	1	-1	4	15:29	0:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	18:21	0:00
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:46	0:00
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	17:20	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	3	9	1	-1	0	17:08	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:33	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:12	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:45	0:00
P. Giles	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:29	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	22:31	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	-2	0	22:20	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	22:04	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-3	0	21:48	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	+1	0	16:14	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	11:52	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	16	11	5	.688	40:00	Loss
S. Knight	6	6	0	1.000	20:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.8, FLA 3.2	MIN 5, FLA 1
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	MIN 27.5, FLA 32.0	MIN 22, FLA 25
Win chance	FLA 57%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	0	1.12	2	41%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.3	5	0.94	1	36%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	2	1.00	1	30%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.9	2	1.00	0	40%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	4	0.73	1	28%	1
MIN M. Boldy	2.7	1	0.77	2	28%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.6	1	0.61	2	24%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.5	0	0.59	0	21%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.3	0	0.66	0	21%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.2	3	0.76	2	21%	1
FLA G. Forsling	2.1	2	0.53	0	12%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.9	0	0.46	0	11%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.8	1	0.41	1	18%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.6	0	0.48	0	7%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.6	3	0.31	1	6%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.6	0	0.27	0	12%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.6	0	0.20	0	11%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.5	0	0.45	0	17%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.5	1	0.29	0	13%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.3	3	0.27	0	13%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.2	4	0.35	1	14%	1
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.2	2	0.17	0	4%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.20	0	4%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.23	0	5%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	3	0.37	0	15%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	1	0.18	0	12%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	0	0.23	3	5%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
FLA A. Boqvist	1.0	2	0.28	0	6%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.9	1	0.19	0	8%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	0.9	1	0.19	0	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.8	1	0.29	0	13%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.6	1	0.11	0	3%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	0	0.14	0	3%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.6	0	0.25	0	10%	0
FLA P. Giles	0.5	0	0.12	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.