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Game Recap
MIN2
NJD3
NJD beat MIN 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.90 expected goals to 2.41. L. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Brodin had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Markstrom stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 12:30NJDL. Hughes0.07 xG
- 3rd 2:57MINV. Hinostroza0.07 xG
- 3rd 9:12NJDN. Hischier0.10 xG
- 3rd 17:52MINM. Boldy0.13 xG
Team Stats
MINNJD
30Shots on goal28
2.41Expected goals1.90
66Shot attempts64
255v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play0/2
25Hits23
18Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways23
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.41 xGNJD 1.90 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:32 | 3:13 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:25 | 1:33 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:04 | 1:35 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:56 | 2:47 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:00 | 2:25 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:08 | 2:24 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 2:17 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:41 | 1:43 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 25:16 | 0:47 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:13 | 1:14 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:05 | 0:02 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:18 | 2:10 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:58 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:08 | 2:10 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 2:05 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 2:04 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 1:45 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 1:45 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 1:50 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 29:11 | 3:13 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:56 | 0:10 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:27 | 0:02 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:52 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:48 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 65:00 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, NJD 3.2 | MIN 2, NJD 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 25.1, NJD 29.7 | MIN 30, NJD 28 |
| Win chance | NJD 57% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD T. Meier | 3.1 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.6 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.2 | 2 | 1.02 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.0 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.0 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.8 | 4 | 0.62 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| NJD D. Sprong | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.6 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.4 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.4 | 4 | 0.29 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.3 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.1 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.