Game Recap: MIN 1, NJD 4, October 22, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN1

FinalWed, Oct 22, 2025Every game that night

NJD4

NJD beat MIN 4-1, with the chances close: 3.11 expected goals to 2.54. D. Mercer led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). L. Hughes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. N. Daws stopped 30 of 31.

Team Stats

MINNJD

31Shots on goal35

2.54Expected goals3.11

68Shot attempts70

265v5 shots on goal29

0/3Power play1/2

25Hits8

20Blocked shots19

4Penalty minutes6

9Giveaways13

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.54 xGNJD 3.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN31 on goal, 1 scored

NJD34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	7	0	1	0	0	21:29	4:28
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	18:07	3:40
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:35	4:18
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	17:14	1:42
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	4	0	3	-2	0	16:57	2:20
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	15:58	1:29
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:44	4:02
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	14:09	1:32
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	7	0	-2	2	11:55	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:31	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	5	2	0	0	11:08	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:23	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:14	3:27
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:46	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	20:39	0:30
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-2	0	19:17	2:32
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:20	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	34	31	3	.912	59:29	Loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Mercer	C	0	2	2	1	0	2	+2	0	16:46	1:07
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	18:22	0:57
A. Gritsyuk	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:55	0:57
J. Bratt	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:10	1:07
C. Brown	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	15:08	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	14:14	0:00
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	+1	0	19:40	1:07
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:29	1:07
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:57	0:57
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	9:37	0:00
B. Halonen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:24	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:14	0:54
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	19:44	0:03
B. Dillon	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	2	18:42	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	+1	0	16:30	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:31	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+1	0	21:54	1:07
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	6	1	1	0	4	19:43	0:57

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Daws	31	30	1	.968	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Johansson14:25M. Rossi13:25V. Tarasenko10:11

Line 2K. Kaprizov16:46J. Ek12:28M. Boldy15:54

Line 3T. Pitlick10:23D. Yurov11:31Y. Trenin10:45

Line 4V. Hinostroza12:37M. Foligno11:55R. Hartman14:37

Pair 1J. Brodin21:11B. Faber18:36

Pair 2J. Spurgeon16:02Z. Buium17:28

Pair 3J. Middleton15:50D.Jiricek13:01

NJD

Line 1T. Meier17:25N. Hischier14:55A. Gritsyuk14:58

Line 2J. Bratt13:08J. Hughes17:36O. Palat12:29

Line 3C. Brown12:20D. Mercer12:46P. Cotter14:14

Line 4L. Glendening7:37B. Halonen8:24S. Noesen7:20

Pair 1B. Pesce19:00L. Hughes17:31

Pair 2D. Hamilton18:01J. Siegenthaler16:39

Pair 3B. Dillon16:12S. Nemec16:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.0, NJD 3.0	MIN 1, NJD 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	MIN 27.0, NJD 28.8	MIN 31, NJD 35
Win chance	MIN 51%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.6	6	1.02	0	35%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	0	1.16	0	44%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	7	0.93	1	33%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	3.0	3	0.64	0	14%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.0	2	0.71	1	31%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.9	2	0.67	1	27%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	2	0.88	0	31%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	4	0.50	0	22%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	2	0.88	1	24%	1
NJD S. Noesen	2.0	0	0.53	0	22%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	1	0.51	2	24%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.8	6	0.54	0	7%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	0	0.55	0	22%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	2	0.31	0	5%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	0	0.38	0	9%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	1	0.38	1	15%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.5	2	0.30	0	8%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.4	2	0.39	1	10%	1
MIN M. Rossi	1.4	3	0.50	0	20%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	4	0.39	0	14%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.3	1	0.34	0	7%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.3	2	0.40	1	6%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	2	0.21	0	12%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	0	0.37	0	15%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	0	0.33	0	16%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.1	2	0.24	1	5%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	1	0.17	1	3%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	2	0.23	1	13%	1
MIN D. Yurov	0.9	1	0.23	0	12%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.8	1	0.20	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	2	0.23	1	4%	1
NJD B. Halonen	0.7	1	0.13	0	8%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.13	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.