NSH beat MIN 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.82 expected goals to 2.11. NSH outshot MIN 38 to 29. F. Forsberg led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). F. Forsberg had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. J. Saros stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| NSH | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 6:23MIND.Jiricek0.11 xG
- 1st 8:22NSHC. Sissons0.21 xG
- 1st 17:29NSHF. ForsbergPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 0:54NSHS. Stamkos0.09 xG
- 2nd 2:07NSHF. Svechkov0.15 xG
- 3rd 2:28MINM. BoldyPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 16:20NSHF. Forsberg0.04 xG
- 3rd 18:11NSHB. SkjeiEN0.62 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.11 xGNSH 4.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:53 | 4:43 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:22 | 4:51 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 | 4:44 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:35 | 4:35 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:39 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 14:50 | 0:46 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 13:50 | 0:08 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:39 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:53 | 0:00 |
| D.Jiricek | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:39 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 25:10 | 4:40 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:31 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:16 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:50 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 37 | 32 | 5 | .865 | 58:29 | Loss |
| D. Ferguson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 19:12 | 4:10 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:25 | 3:45 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:28 | 3:52 |
| C. Sissons | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 3:11 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 1:27 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:28 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 0:49 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 12:36 | 0:47 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:34 | 3:45 |
| B. Skjei | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:13 | 0:56 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, NSH 3.0 | MIN 2, NSH 6 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.7, NSH 31.7 | MIN 29, NSH 38 |
| Win chance | NSH 54% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.4 | 8 | 0.98 | 4 | 36% | 2 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.3 | 6 | 0.88 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.2 | 3 | 0.95 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.1 | 5 | 0.88 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.8 | 5 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.4 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.1 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.5 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.5 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH V. Hinostroza | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.2 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN D.Jiricek | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.