OTT beat MIN 6-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 1.19. OTT outshot MIN 52 to 16. J. Sanderson led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). B. Tkachuk had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.9. L. Meriläinen stopped 16 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OTT | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
- 1st 18:01OTTJ. NorrisSH0.08 xG
- 2nd 7:38OTTT. Stützle0.26 xG
- 2nd 8:45OTTM. Amadio0.16 xG
- 3rd 0:38OTTJ. SandersonPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 1:37OTTB. TkachukPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 2:52OTTD. BathersonPP0.19 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 1.19 xGOTT 4.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:26 | 2:38 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:50 | 2:53 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:43 | 2:06 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 17:32 | 2:36 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:10 | 2:48 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:18 | 2:22 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 8:25 | 2:08 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:10 | 2:34 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 4 | 21:43 | 0:13 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 2:12 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:56 | 2:25 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 52 | 46 | 6 | .885 | 59:55 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 18:19 | 5:48 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 5:41 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 6:13 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:39 | 4:45 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:47 | 5:36 |
| J. Norris | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:34 | 4:57 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:27 | 6:04 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:38 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 5:05 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 2:11 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:03 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:14 | 6:16 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:45 | 0:16 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 | 5:54 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:28 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Meriläinen | 16 | 16 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.7, OTT 2.8 | MIN 0, OTT 6 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.5, OTT 30.1 | MIN 16, OTT 52 |
| Win chance | OTT 51% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.9 | 9 | 0.82 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.1 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.9 | 4 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.5 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.3 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.3 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 6 | 0.75 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.2 | 5 | 0.50 | 4 | 7% | 1 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 3 | 0.88 | 3 | 27% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.0 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 1.9 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.6 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.4 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.3 | 4 | 0.35 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 5 | 0.06 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.