Game Recap: MIN 1, PHI 2 (OT), October 18, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN1

Final/OTSat, Oct 18, 2025Every game that night

PHI2

PHI beat MIN 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.32 expected goals to 1.98. D. Vladar stopped 15 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	0	1	0	0	1
PHI	0	0	1	1	2

2nd 1:55MINV. Tarasenko0.11 xG
3rd 7:10PHIO. Tippett0.06 xG
OT 2:37PHIN. Cates0.20 xG

Team Stats

MINPHI

16Shots on goal21

1.98Expected goals2.32

56Shot attempts51

125v5 shots on goal19

0/3Power play0/2

19Hits32

15Blocked shots16

9Penalty minutes9

14Giveaways15

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 1.98 xGPHI 2.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN16 on goal, 1 scored

PHI21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	18:01	1:32
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:38	4:23
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	23:25	5:05
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	23:05	5:02
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:54	4:56
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:21	0:58
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:35	1:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	11:54	0:05
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	10:53	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:41	0:25
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:27	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	7:29	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	22:09	0:05
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	23:41	0:14
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	20:19	0:37
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:04	5:18
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	17:50	0:20
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	21	19	2	.905	62:37	OT loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Foerster	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:14	1:44
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	19:20	1:45
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	5	3	0	+1	2	18:39	2:15
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	16:42	1:44
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:16	0:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:39	2:11
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	20:28	2:15
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:58	1:38
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	12:07	2:21
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:30	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:53	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	4:54	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	21:35	2:35
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	29:58	0:53
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	26:10	0:39
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	4	5	+1	0	18:06	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	12:08	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	16	15	1	.938	62:37	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov16:34M. Boldy15:53J. Ek13:18

Line 2M. Johansson14:20V. Tarasenko12:15M. Rossi13:34

Line 3R. Hartman14:35M. Foligno10:13V. Hinostroza10:16

Line 4Y. Trenin10:53D. Yurov10:27T. Pitlick7:29

Pair 1J. Brodin20:12B. Faber19:40

Pair 2J. Spurgeon17:22Z. Buium14:46

Pair 3J. Middleton15:45D.Jiricek12:28

PHI

Line 1B. Brink16:20T. Foerster15:33N. Cates15:02

Line 2S. Couturier14:50T. Konecny14:31M. Michkov9:46

Line 3C. Dvorak14:13T. Zegras13:37O. Tippett15:24

Line 4G. Hathaway8:31R. Abols6:53N. Deslauriers4:54

Pair 1T. Sanheim24:43C. York21:43

Pair 2N. Seeler15:38J. Drysdale17:50

Pair 3N. Juulsen9:18E. Zamula11:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBobby Brink MIN Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.0, PHI 3.1	MIN 1, PHI 2
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	MIN 25.5, PHI 28.8	MIN 16, PHI 21
Win chance	PHI 51%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.3	2	1.25	0	44%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	2	1.01	0	33%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.8	1	0.69	0	26%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.6	2	0.83	0	27%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	5	0.59	1	25%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.4	1	0.68	0	20%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	1	0.53	0	22%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	2	0.85	0	28%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	2	0.59	1	26%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.9	0	0.69	1	23%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.9	2	0.49	0	11%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	1	0.58	1	22%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.6	3	0.53	1	18%	1
PHI B. Brink	1.6	1	0.63	0	20%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.5	1	0.30	0	5%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.4	1	0.33	0	9%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.4	1	0.40	0	10%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.4	2	0.44	1	17%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.4	1	0.52	1	20%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.4	0	0.41	1	9%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.3	1	0.42	0	5%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.2	1	0.40	0	14%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.2	0	0.34	1	7%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	0	0.30	0	7%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	2	0.23	0	13%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	0	0.37	0	17%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	1.0	0	0.13	0	7%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.9	0	0.20	0	8%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.7	1	0.21	0	4%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.7	0	0.24	0	4%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.