Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
MIN5
PIT3
MIN beat PIT 5-3, with the chances close: 2.75 expected goals to 2.13. MIN outshot PIT 40 to 29. F. Gaudreau led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Letang had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. M. Fleury stopped 26 of 29.
Team Stats
MINPIT
40Shots on goal29
2.75Expected goals2.13
67Shot attempts53
315v5 shots on goal26
0/5Power play1/2
15Hits15
16Blocked shots11
9Penalty minutes15
13Giveaways15
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.75 xGPIT 2.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:38 | 7:50 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:52 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 7:30 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:01 | 0:48 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:31 | 7:48 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:05 | 7:43 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:49 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:07 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:21 | 0:43 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 23:58 | 5:48 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:13 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:40 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:54 | 2:24 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 59:59 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:44 | 2:36 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:57 | 2:11 |
| V. Puustinen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:50 | 1:11 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:10 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 17:49 | 1:16 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:48 | 1:16 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 6:32 | 0:51 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4:59 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:45 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:06 | 1:56 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:24 | 1:30 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 2:10 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | 13:50 | 0:03 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blomqvist | 39 | 35 | 4 | .897 | 58:49 | Loss |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.3, PIT 3.2 | MIN 5, PIT 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 30.3, PIT 31.9 | MIN 40, PIT 29 |
| Win chance | MIN 51% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.7 | 7 | 1.34 | 3 | 45% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.1 | 5 | 0.92 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.9 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.9 | 3 | 1.08 | 3 | 33% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.4 | 4 | 0.88 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.3 | 1 | 0.92 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.3 | 5 | 0.59 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 6 | 0.61 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 2.0 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.0 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.8 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT L. Eller | 1.8 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.7 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.7 | 5 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 4 | 0.33 | 3 | 15% | 2 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT V. Puustinen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 1.0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.