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Game Recap
MIN3
STL6
STL beat MIN 6-3, with the chances close: 3.12 expected goals to 3.08. MIN outshot STL 31 to 22. N. Foligno led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Hofer stopped 28 of 31.
Team Stats
MINSTL
31Shots on goal22
3.08Expected goals3.12
52Shot attempts45
215v5 shots on goal14
1/5Power play0/4
23Hits15
8Blocked shots6
13Penalty minutes13
14Giveaways17
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.08 xGSTL 3.12 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Foligno | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 3:10 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:37 | 6:03 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:34 | 5:53 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:53 | 5:52 |
| M. McCarron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 3:20 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 16:28 | 3:22 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:06 | 5:53 |
| H. Haight | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:40 | 3:19 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 3:13 |
| V. Gustafsson-Nyberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Kiersted | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:35 | 6:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 21 | 16 | 5 | .762 | 58:49 | Loss |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:44 | 3:06 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 3:17 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:07 | 4:36 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:49 | 4:25 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:35 | 4:28 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 4:27 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:26 | 2:27 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:17 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:16 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:00 | 3:14 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:21 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:06 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:26 |
| C. Parayko | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 | 16:09 | 0:27 |
| T. Lindstein | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:43 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 24:17 | 4:48 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:52 | 2:36 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:50 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1H. Haight11:21B. Brink11:34M. Johansson10:33
Line 2V. Tarasenko12:23D. Yurov11:21Y. Trenin10:40
Line 3R. Fabbri10:13B. Jones9:30N. Aube-Kubel9:02
Line 4N. Foligno10:00M. McCarron8:55N. Sturm9:12
Pair 1V. Gustafsson-Nyberg16:44M. Kiersted14:27
Pair 2J. Petry13:28J. Middleton14:35
Pair 3D. Hunt11:54J. Spurgeon11:18
STL
Line 1R. Thomas13:41D. Holloway13:00J. Snuggerud11:59
Line 2P. Buchnevich11:15J. Kyrou11:24P. Suter10:18
Line 3J. Drouin10:57J. Neighbours10:49D. Dvorsky10:54
Line 4A. Toropchenko7:00J. Finley6:20O. Stenberg6:42
Pair 1P. Broberg14:53L. Mailloux15:09
Pair 3C. Parayko12:48T. Lindstein12:13
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.2, STL 3.0 | MIN 3, STL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 28.7, STL 27.2 | MIN 31, STL 22 |
| Win chance | MIN 52% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL D. Holloway | 2.8 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.6 | 2 | 0.72 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.7 | 1 | 0.98 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.6 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| STL T. Lindstein | 1.2 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| STL J. Drouin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN B. Brink | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. McCarron | 1.1 | 3 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MIN H. Haight | 1.1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.0 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| MIN R. Fabbri | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN N. Foligno | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| MIN N. Aube-Kubel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.9 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Kiersted | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Petry | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL J. Finley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.6 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.