Game Recap: MIN 3, TBL 6, March 24, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN3

FinalTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night

TBL6

TBL beat MIN 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.62 expected goals to 2.41. D. Raddysh led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	2	1	0	3
TBL	0	3	3	6

1st 2:28MINM. ZuccarelloPP0.09 xG
1st 18:49MINB. FaberPP0.05 xG
2nd 5:45TBLB. PointPP0.25 xG
2nd 9:51MINV. Tarasenko0.09 xG
2nd 12:27TBLJ. Guentzel0.08 xG
2nd 15:19TBLD. RaddyshPP0.09 xG
3rd 17:07TBLE. Cernak0.26 xG
3rd 18:42TBLB. HagelEN0.88 xG
3rd 19:36TBLP. HolmbergEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

MINTBL

24Shots on goal25

2.41Expected goals4.62

50Shot attempts68

195v5 shots on goal20

2/4Power play3/4

20Hits20

19Blocked shots10

20Penalty minutes20

17Giveaways10

7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.41 xGTBL 4.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN24 on goal, 3 scored

TBL25 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	-2	0	15:25	0:30
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	0	21:15	2:41
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	1	2	2	-1	2	16:10	0:22
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	15:48	2:41
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	14:10	0:22
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	12:24	0:14
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	21:31	2:41
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:52	2:41
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	11:43	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	11:27	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7	11:07	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	5	10:18	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	28:52	2:41
B. Faber	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	2	24:39	0:22
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:48	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	18:13	0:08
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:16	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	24	20	4	.833	58:16	Loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	19:14	2:33
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	2	18:49	2:55
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	19:26	3:19
B. Point	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	17:33	2:33
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	15:31	0:46
P. Holmberg	RW	1	0	1	0	1	1	+1	0	13:57	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:44	1:21
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	16:06	1:21
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	15:00	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:49	0:00
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	9:11	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	8:37	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	2	3	5	1	1	+1	0	23:48	3:08
C. D'Astous	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	20:27	0:46
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	17:44	0:13
E. Cernak	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	2	15:28	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:26	0:35
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	19:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	24	21	3	.875	59:27	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov17:12M. Boldy15:18J. Ek14:18

Line 2V. Tarasenko14:07R. Hartman15:23M. Zuccarello12:03

Line 3D. Yurov10:54B. Brink12:10M. Johansson12:43

Line 4M. McCarron10:52Y. Trenin10:57N. Foligno8:44

Pair 1Q. Hughes23:46J. Spurgeon17:31

Pair 2J. Brodin17:19B. Faber22:55

Pair 3Z. Bogosian11:06J. Middleton11:12

TBL

Line 1J. Guentzel16:04B. Point14:44G. Goncalves14:16

Line 2N. Kucherov15:34B. Hagel14:29A. Cirelli12:32

Line 3Y. Gourde13:41P. Holmberg12:52Z. Girgensons11:58

Line 4S. Sabourin9:11N. Paul11:08C. Perry8:13

Pair 1C. D'Astous19:25E. Lilleberg18:23

Pair 2D. Raddysh19:54J. Moser17:32

Pair 3R. McDonagh14:23E. Cernak14:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.9, TBL 3.4	MIN 3, TBL 6
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	MIN 27.7, TBL 30.4	MIN 24, TBL 25
Win chance	TBL 58%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.3	2	1.09	0	41%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	2	0.92	1	33%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	3	1.48	1	35%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.9	5	0.76	3	15%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	2	0.89	2	30%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.6	3	0.63	0	24%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	0	0.91	1	12%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	3	0.87	2	33%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	1	0.50	1	22%	0
TBL B. Point	2.1	2	0.88	1	34%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	1	0.73	1	21%	1
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	1	0.54	2	22%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.8	3	0.38	1	9%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	0	0.59	0	21%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.4	1	0.33	0	7%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.3	2	0.40	0	13%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.3	0	0.38	0	18%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.3	3	0.42	1	16%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.3	1	0.30	1	16%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	0	0.28	0	8%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	1	0.43	1	14%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	2	0.45	1	16%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	1	0.18	0	10%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	0	0.31	1	6%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.1	0	0.20	0	10%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	0	0.28	1	12%	1
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	2	0.23	0	5%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	0	0.35	1	5%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	1	0.22	0	11%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	1	0.34	0	13%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.20	1	3%	1
MIN N. Foligno	0.9	2	0.27	0	11%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	2	0.19	0	3%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.6	0	0.19	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.