Game Recap: MIN 2, TBL 3, October 8, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN2

FinalThu, Oct 8, 2026Every game that night

TBL3

TBL beat MIN 3-2, with the chances close: 3.48 expected goals to 3.03. J. Carlson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Carlson had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. D. Hildeby stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	2	0	2
TBL	2	1	0	3

1st 5:26TBLA. Cirelli0.06 xG
1st 6:02TBLJ. Carlson0.02 xG
2nd 2:32MINQ. Hughes0.03 xG
2nd 4:55TBLJ. CarlsonPP0.12 xG
2nd 14:01MINB. ColemanPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

MINTBL

36Shots on goal35

3.03Expected goals3.48

61Shot attempts70

285v5 shots on goal29

1/2Power play1/3

24Hits12

20Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways10

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.03 xGTBL 3.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN35 on goal, 2 scored

TBL35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	23:07	2:27
B. Coleman	LW	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	14:20	1:17
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	12:01	1:21
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	3	4	4	0	0	22:14	3:15
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	21:16	2:11
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	16:36	2:15
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	12:47	0:04
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	11:23	0:13
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	11:15	1:07
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	10:56	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	10:54	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	10:50	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	32:36	3:26
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	3	2	5	+1	0	24:54	0:03
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	2	23:00	0:05
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	2	19:29	0:06
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:03	0:00
D. Spacek	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	8:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	35	32	3	.914	59:03	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	20:55	3:51
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	22:55	3:29
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	21:12	3:50
A. Cirelli	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	19:25	1:13
B. Point	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:34	3:30
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	16:12	0:59
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:08	0:08
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:26	0:07
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:02	0:51
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	10:30	0:58
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	8:23	0:00
J. Carlson	D	2	0	2	9	2	3	0	0	16:48	3:41
E. Cernak	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	19:32	0:09
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	2	21:02	0:06
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:16	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	16:04	1:12
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:21	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:04	0:21

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	36	34	2	.944	59:37	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1J. Ek16:49M. Boldy16:27K. Kaprizov19:37

Line 2M. McCarron9:39N. Sturm8:38Y. Trenin10:49

Line 3D. Yurov10:57M. Shabanov13:24

Line 4R. Hartman10:08B. Brink10:40M. Foligno10:54

Pair 1Q. Hughes28:05J. Spurgeon20:33

Pair 2Z. Bogosian18:02J. Brodin21:22

Pair 3D. Hunt7:40D. Spacek6:37

TBL

Line 1P. Holmberg13:06I. Mikheyev13:23Z. Girgensons12:53

Line 2B. Point13:58G. Goncalves15:04N. Kucherov15:41

Line 3B. Hagel16:59J. Guentzel15:58A. Cirelli15:24

Line 4J. Viel8:23C. Geekie9:30

Pair 1M. Crozier20:47C. D'Astous14:29

Pair 2R. McDonagh14:27E. Cernak16:36

Pair 3J. Carlson13:07J. Moser11:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 18 overs hit (61%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+130	-152	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	-140	+125	3	Over
TBL B. Point	2.5	+135	-140	2	Under
MIN J. Ek	2.5	+125	-132	6	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	-105	-105	1	Under
MIN M. Boldy	2.5	-160	+135	3	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	2.5	-135	+125	1	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+120	-144	4	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	-110	-110	4	Over
MIN B. Coleman	1.5	-135	+135	6	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	1.5	+105	-125	2	Over
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	+110	–	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	1.5	+130	-140	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	+115	-150	2	Over
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	-164	+135	9	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	1.5	+116	–	3	Over
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	-130	+110	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	-220	+160	3	Over

4 of 35 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+330	-500	1	Over
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+360	-490	1	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+180	-210	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+205	-240	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+575	-1200	0	Under
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	+3000	-5000	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+425	-600	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+550	-800	2	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+185	-220	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
TBL J. Viel	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+165	-180	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+185	-220	0	Under
TBL M. Crozier	0.5	+2100	-2800	0	Under
MIN M. Foligno	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+170	-190	0	Under
MIN N. Sturm	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+625	-1000	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+500	-800	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+425	-600	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+3000	-3500	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under

9 of 24 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+230	-270	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+290	-425	1	Over
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+135	-150	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	+150	-170	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+150	-220	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+450	-700	1	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+260	-295	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+650	-1100	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+115	-140	1	Over
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+225	-310	1	Over
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+115	-140	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+215	-255	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-175	+140	2	Over
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+330	-425	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under

12 of 24 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+130	-150	2	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+130	-140	1	Over
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+180	-240	1	Over
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+135	-150	1	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-150	+150	1	Over
TBL B. Point	0.5	-145	+130	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+176	–	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+340	-500	1	Over
TBL G. Goncalves	0.5	+160	-175	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	-120	+105	2	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-111	-110	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-180	+160	1	Over
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+215	-300	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+180	-240	1	Over
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-175	+180	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-160	+140	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+165	-225	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-145	+130	2	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+172	-190	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under

5 of 13 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+280	-325	0	Under
TBL B. Point	0.5	+220	-250	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+210	-350	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+230	-280	1	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+290	-500	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+185	-210	1	Over
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+280	-550	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+115	-150	1	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+210	-275	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
MIN J. Wallstedt	24.5	-122	-105	32	Over
TBL D. Hildeby	23.5	-118	-112	34	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	-145	+100	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.8, TBL 3.5	MIN 2, TBL 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	MIN 25.6, TBL 30.4	MIN 36, TBL 35
Win chance	TBL 60%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL B. Hagel	3.5	3	1.19	1	38%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.4	1	1.70	2	39%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	3	0.94	0	34%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.0	0	1.11	1	41%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	1	1.13	1	38%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.8	6	0.70	0	26%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	2	1.00	1	37%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.3	4	0.99	2	15%	1
MIN B. Coleman	2.2	6	0.45	1	20%	1
TBL J. Carlson	2.1	9	0.73	2	14%	2
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	0	0.49	0	21%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	4	0.65	1	24%	1
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.5	2	0.46	0	20%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.4	0	0.48	0	9%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.4	2	0.22	0	3%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.4	1	0.26	0	11%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.3	1	0.32	0	13%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	0	0.32	0	7%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.3	0	0.46	0	15%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.2	3	0.40	0	13%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.2	1	0.37	1	14%	0
TBL J. Viel	1.2	3	0.20	0	8%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.2	1	0.23	1	5%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	2	0.36	0	8%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	3	0.29	1	8%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	2	0.23	0	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.28	0	14%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	0	0.22	0	10%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	0	0.30	0	13%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
TBL C. Geekie	0.9	3	0.23	0	11%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	0	0.36	0	5%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.20	0	9%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.6	4	0.13	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.