MIN beat TOR 3-1, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.38. TOR outshot MIN 33 to 25. M. Pacioretty had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. F. Gustavsson stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 7:07MINM. Khusnutdinov0.15 xG
- 1st 15:35MINJ. SpurgeonPP0.04 xG
- 3rd 8:16TORW. Nylander0.20 xG
- 3rd 19:45MINM. FolignoEN0.84 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.92 xGTOR 2.38 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:42 | 0:05 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:05 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:29 | 0:05 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:05 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:05 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:19 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 33 | 32 | 1 | .970 | 59:33 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Nylander | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:58 | 1:51 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:09 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:38 | 1:51 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:04 | 1:51 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:40 | 1:51 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 1:51 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:09 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:09 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:00 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:31 | 0:09 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:09 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, TOR 3.1 | MIN 3, TOR 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.1, TOR 30.4 | MIN 25, TOR 33 |
| Win chance | TOR 57% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.0 | 6 | 1.17 | 0 | 46% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.6 | 1 | 1.09 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.1 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.0 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 3.0 | 5 | 0.62 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.5 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.3 | 2 | 1.25 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.9 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 1.8 | 5 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.4 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR F. Minten | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| TOR R. Reaves | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.