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Game Recap
MIN1
UTA6
UTA beat MIN 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.27 expected goals to 1.87. UTA outshot MIN 31 to 16. C. Keller led the way with 5 points (1 G, 4 A). J. Doan had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. K. Vejmelka stopped 15 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| UTA | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
- 1st 3:59UTAB. HaytonPP0.15 xG
- 1st 19:30UTAD. GuentherPP0.15 xG
- 2nd 16:02MINF. Gaudreau0.25 xG
- 2nd 17:50UTAS. Durzi0.01 xG
- 3rd 3:47UTAN. Schmaltz0.25 xG
- 3rd 9:30UTAC. Keller0.34 xG
- 3rd 15:01UTAL. Cooley0.12 xG
Team Stats
MINUTA
16Shots on goal31
1.87Expected goals3.27
44Shot attempts67
145v5 shots on goal26
0/2Power play2/4
31Hits21
21Blocked shots11
13Penalty minutes9
14Giveaways9
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 1.87 xGUTA 3.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 2:51 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:50 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:35 | 2:43 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:53 | 2:04 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:41 | 1:57 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:53 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 2:07 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:17 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:00 | 2:07 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 23:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 22:12 | 0:10 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 1:46 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 15:08 | 1:15 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 31 | 25 | 6 | .806 | 60:00 | Loss |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:52 | 3:38 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:54 |
| B. Hayton | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 3:38 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:45 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:34 | 3:41 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:04 | 1:13 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:44 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:16 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 12:39 | 1:16 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 21:13 | 3:53 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:22 |
| S. Durzi | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:48 | 1:10 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 16 | 15 | 1 | .938 | 59:37 | Win |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, UTA 3.1 | MIN 1, UTA 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.5, UTA 30.9 | MIN 16, UTA 31 |
| Win chance | UTA 55% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 4 | 0.82 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 3.0 | 3 | 1.04 | 5 | 33% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.0 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.3 | 1 | 0.76 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.2 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.1 | 4 | 0.79 | 3 | 24% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.8 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.8 | 7 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.5 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.