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Game Recap
MIN1
FinalSun, Jan 12, 2025Every game that night
VGK4

VGK beat MIN 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.38 expected goals to 1.99. VGK outshot MIN 37 to 16. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Hertl had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Hill stopped 15 of 16.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MIN1001
VGK0134
  1. 1st 12:09MINR. Hartman0.02 xG
  2. 2nd 5:21VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.18 xG
  3. 3rd 4:09VGKK. Kolesar0.19 xG
  4. 3rd 15:40VGKT. Hertl0.09 xG
  5. 3rd 17:48VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.17 xG

Team Stats

MINVGK
16Shots on goal37
1.99Expected goals4.38
38Shot attempts71
125v5 shots on goal27
0/2Power play2/5
27Hits23
16Blocked shots10
15Penalty minutes9
19Giveaways16
7Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 1.99 xGVGK 4.38 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdMIN goal, 12:09VGK goal, 5:21VGK goal, 4:09VGK goal, 15:40VGK goal, 17:48

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN16 on goal, 1 scored
VGK37 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. HartmanRW101401+1012:580:41
M. ZuccarelloRW0003010021:393:19
M. BoldyLW0001200021:023:18
M. RossiC0002010020:163:22
J. Eriksson EkC0000410019:033:20
F. GaudreauC000021+1015:190:38
M. FolignoLW0000400512:400:00
M. JohanssonLW000001+1012:320:40
M. KhusnutdinovC000210-2011:300:00
Y. TreninC0000600210:520:00
D. ShoreC000221-228:210:00
B. JonesC000110-208:210:00
Z. BogosianD011000-1424:450:00
J. MiddletonD000033-1225:000:00
D. ChisholmD000112-1021:492:36
J. MerrillD000013+1021:220:00
T. DermottD0000000013:401:24
D.JiricekD0000010010:110:42
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
F. Gustavsson37334.89259:56Loss
M. Fleury000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
P. DorofeyevRW2135000019:274:17
M. StoneRW0221000021:515:54
T. HertlC1125100019:525:54
N. RoyC011001+1017:030:54
K. KolesarRW101220+1514:150:00
W. KarlssonC0003010020:045:14
I. BarbashevLW0003500216:400:53
V. OlofssonLW0002100016:112:11
B. HowdenC000272+1215:470:00
T. PearsonLW000100006:560:00
A. HoltzRW000100006:290:00
C. SchwindtRW000010006:280:00
S. TheodoreD0224000020:546:05
Z. WhitecloudD011112+1016:390:00
A. PietrangeloD0002000022:401:55
N. HanifinD0003220022:010:43
B. McNabbD0002220018:270:00
N. HagueD000010+1014:300:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill16151.93859:46Win
I. Samsonov000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMIN 2.7, VGK 3.4MIN 1, VGK 4
Total goals6.15
Shots on goalMIN 26.7, VGK 32.3MIN 16, VGK 37
Win chanceVGK 61%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MIN M. Boldy3.010.77028%0
MIN J. Ek2.700.64025%0
VGK P. Dorofeyev2.550.51326%2
MIN M. Zuccarello2.330.85022%0
VGK V. Olofsson2.220.58028%0
VGK W. Karlsson2.130.62023%0
VGK M. Stone2.110.96229%0
VGK T. Hertl2.150.60223%1
VGK A. Pietrangelo2.020.5008%0
MIN M. Rossi2.020.63024%0
MIN R. Hartman2.040.44119%1
VGK S. Theodore2.040.6729%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.930.50010%0
MIN F. Gaudreau1.500.35015%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.530.63022%0
MIN M. Johansson1.400.37014%0
VGK B. Howden1.420.40019%0
VGK N. Roy1.400.43116%0
VGK T. Pearson1.310.35014%0
MIN Z. Bogosian1.300.2015%0
VGK N. Hague1.200.1704%0
VGK B. McNabb1.220.2604%0
VGK K. Kolesar1.220.36114%1
MIN Y. Trenin1.200.22013%0
MIN J. Middleton1.100.2707%0
VGK A. Holtz1.110.24012%0
MIN D. Chisholm1.110.2606%0
MIN M. Foligno1.100.33015%0
VGK Z. Whitecloud0.910.2016%0
VGK C. Schwindt0.800.1705%0
MIN B. Jones0.810.0605%0
MIN D.Jiricek0.700.1502%0
MIN J. Merrill0.700.1604%0
MIN D. Shore0.720.1405%0
MIN T. Dermott0.500.0803%0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov0.520.1406%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.