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Game Recap
MIN5
VGK2
MIN beat VGK 5-2, with the chances close: 2.75 expected goals to 2.54. MIN outshot VGK 27 to 16. M. Johansson led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). B. McNabb had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. F. Gustavsson stopped 14 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 0:26MINM. Johansson0.09 xG
- 1st 14:06MINM. Boldy0.17 xG
- 2nd 0:26MINJ. Spurgeon0.05 xG
- 2nd 4:32MINB. Faber0.02 xG
- 2nd 6:56MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.11 xG
- 2nd 16:50VGKB. McNabb0.03 xG
- 3rd 2:14VGKM. Stone0.32 xG
Team Stats
MINVGK
27Shots on goal16
2.75Expected goals2.54
57Shot attempts51
215v5 shots on goal13
0/2Power play0/2
17Hits30
20Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes15
15Giveaways13
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.75 xGVGK 2.54 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 13:46 | 2:29 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 16:18 | 4:13 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 16:14 | 4:38 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:41 | 4:39 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 4:34 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:11 | 2:23 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 2:19 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:22 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +2 | 0 | 19:35 | 2:23 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:33 | 2:22 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 | 4:38 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 16 | 14 | 2 | .875 | 59:37 | Win |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:02 | 2:29 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 2:52 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:15 | 2:52 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 2:52 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:06 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:59 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:07 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:09 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:24 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:58 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:47 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0:55 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 23:45 | 0:25 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:08 | 2:52 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:11 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:16 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:52 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello14:00K. Kaprizov14:39D. Yurov13:37
Line 2M. Foligno11:55N. Sturm11:20Y. Trenin12:49
Line 3V. Tarasenko12:05R. Hartman12:28V. Hinostroza11:01
Line 4J. Ek10:38M. Boldy10:15M. Johansson10:36
Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:26J. Brodin15:21
Pair 3Z. Bogosian15:22J. Middleton16:10
VGK
Line 1M. Stone15:01M. Marner16:18I. Barbashev15:33
Line 2K. Kolesar12:05B. Saad12:12C. Sissons10:45
Line 4P. Dorofeyev12:41A. Holtz12:09
Pair 1B. McNabb19:04K. Korczak17:30
Pair 2Z. Whitecloud16:58J. Lauzon14:20
Pair 3B. Hutton13:26N. Hanifin15:59
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.6, VGK 3.1 | MIN 5, VGK 2 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 24.9, VGK 31.2 | MIN 27, VGK 16 |
| Win chance | VGK 58% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.2 | 3 | 1.11 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.1 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.9 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.7 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.6 | 2 | 0.64 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.3 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.2 | 3 | 0.90 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 1 | 1.02 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 1.8 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.6 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.55 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.44 | 4 | 15% | 1 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 4 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.