Game Recap: MIN 4, WSH 3 (SO), January 2, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN4

Final/SOThu, Jan 2, 2025Every game that night

WSH3

MIN beat WSH 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.15 expected goals to 2.21. R. Hartman led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Dubois had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. M. Fleury stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
MIN	2	0	1	1	4
WSH	1	1	1	0	3

1st 10:19WSHT. Wilson0.21 xG
1st 11:24MINR. Hartman0.08 xG
1st 19:07MINY. TreninSH0.19 xG
2nd 15:08WSHA. OvechkinPP0.04 xG
3rd 5:34WSHM. Fehérváry0.03 xG
3rd 11:19MINM. Rossi0.22 xG

Team Stats

MINWSH

33Shots on goal31

3.15Expected goals2.21

63Shot attempts68

285v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play1/3

10Hits16

14Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways13

10Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.15 xGWSH 2.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN33 on goal, 3 scored

WSH30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Hartman	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	17:01	1:10
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	23:28	2:50
M. Rossi	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:16	3:50
Y. Trenin	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	0	0	12:58	0:00
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	21:00	3:47
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	20:10	3:55
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	18:30	0:13
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:23	0:10
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:10	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	4	10:54	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:49	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	8:33	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	27:15	0:05
Z. Bogosian	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	2	18:29	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	31:29	3:03
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	0	20:17	0:57
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:03	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Fleury	31	28	3	.903	64:39	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	2	21:53	3:03
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	20:50	1:57
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-2	0	20:10	5:04
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	17:05	3:06
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	18:35	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	16:08	2:02
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	16:01	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:21	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:05	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:33	1:52
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:20	0:00
I. Miroshnichenko	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:58	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	21:49	2:05
M. Fehérváry	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:58	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	5	1	2	0	0	24:49	3:11
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	21:56	3:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	-1	0	18:55	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	33	30	3	.909	64:45	OT loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.0, WSH 3.2	MIN 4, WSH 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	MIN 27.4, WSH 28.8	MIN 33, WSH 31
Win chance	WSH 54%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.8	4	0.82	1	34%	1
MIN M. Boldy	2.8	5	0.80	0	28%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.7	2	0.72	1	26%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.2	2	0.55	0	14%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	3	0.63	1	27%	1
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	5	0.63	0	12%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	1	0.83	0	22%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.0	2	0.55	0	24%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	2	0.47	2	20%	1
MIN M. Rossi	1.9	3	0.64	1	24%	1
WSH A. Protas	1.8	0	0.59	0	18%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	3	0.87	1	26%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.7	1	0.33	1	8%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.6	5	0.65	1	22%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.5	3	0.39	0	16%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.4	4	0.47	0	10%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.4	0	0.31	0	6%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	1	0.39	0	14%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.3	1	0.30	0	13%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.2	1	0.31	0	12%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.2	0	0.39	0	17%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	0	0.38	0	19%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.1	0	0.26	0	7%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	0	0.39	1	7%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	0	0.38	0	16%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.1	2	0.24	0	3%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	3	0.22	1	13%	1
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.0	3	0.15	1	4%	0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	2	0.22	1	5%	1
MIN B. Jones	0.7	3	0.07	0	6%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.6	0	0.16	0	5%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	1	0.14	0	4%	0
MIN T. Dermott	0.5	0	0.08	0	3%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.4	1	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.