Game Recap: MTL 2, ANA 3, February 2, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL2

FinalSun, Feb 2, 2025Every game that night

ANA3

ANA beat MTL 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.78 expected goals to 2.30. A. Killorn led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Leason had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. L. Dostal stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	2	0	0	2
ANA	0	2	1	3

1st 10:35MTLJ. ArmiaSH0.19 xG
1st 14:57MTLC. DvorakPP0.16 xG
2nd 13:37ANAM. McTavish0.08 xG
2nd 14:17ANAF. Vatrano0.17 xG
3rd 11:11ANAA. Killorn0.03 xG

Team Stats

MTLANA

23Shots on goal22

2.30Expected goals1.78

50Shot attempts55

135v5 shots on goal16

1/4Power play0/4

11Hits23

20Blocked shots14

13Penalty minutes13

9Giveaways3

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.30 xGANA 1.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL22 on goal, 2 scored

ANA20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Armia	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	17:34	0:03
C. Dvorak	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	17:30	3:50
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	-1	0	15:56	3:41
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	15:18	0:03
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	21:41	4:19
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:08	4:05
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	18:49	4:32
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:16	0:03
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	13:59	3:36
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	11:57	3:20
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:33	4:24
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	6:00	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	27:58	3:39
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	23:05	4:19
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-1	0	17:48	0:03
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	5	16:55	0:03
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:26	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	22	19	3	.864	57:59	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Killorn	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	17:23	2:22
L. Carlsson	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	13:29	2:22
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	18:09	3:34
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	17:27	3:20
F. Vatrano	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	16:49	3:29
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:24	3:30
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	19:55	0:23
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	17:59	0:21
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:48	2:10
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	10:19	0:14
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:19	2:08
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	5:27	0:06
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-1	0	24:48	3:46
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	20:40	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	19:26	0:18
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	19:10	0:07
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:16	2:20
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	14:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, ANA 2.9	MTL 2, ANA 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	MTL 28.8, ANA 29.8	MTL 23, ANA 22
Win chance	MTL 51%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.3	3	0.83	0	33%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	3.1	2	0.65	1	31%	1
MTL P. Laine	2.6	1	0.78	0	30%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.3	2	0.65	1	26%	1
MTL M. Matheson	2.2	1	0.60	1	12%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	2	0.92	0	28%	0
ANA T. Zegras	2.1	0	0.63	1	22%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.1	1	0.45	0	17%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.9	2	0.41	0	18%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	1	0.59	2	25%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	3	0.51	0	10%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.8	3	0.61	1	19%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.7	2	0.63	0	20%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.6	3	0.38	1	17%	1
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	1	0.45	1	19%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	1	0.31	0	7%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.6	1	0.32	0	6%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.6	2	0.48	0	23%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.6	1	0.45	0	17%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	0	0.34	0	17%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	0	0.40	2	18%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.4	0	0.30	0	5%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.4	5	0.32	0	14%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	1	0.71	0	7%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	2	0.40	1	15%	1
MTL A. Carrier	1.3	3	0.34	0	6%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.3	0	0.18	0	6%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.1	1	0.30	0	7%	0
ANA J. Harkins	1.1	0	0.21	0	10%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	1	0.42	1	13%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.0	0	0.27	0	4%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	0	0.25	0	12%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	0	0.15	0	5%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	0	0.25	0	5%	0
MTL M. Pezzetta	0.5	0	0.13	0	5%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.