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Game Recap
MTL5
Final/SOFri, Mar 6, 2026Every game that night
ANA6

ANA beat MTL 6-5 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.55 expected goals to 3.69. C. Kreider led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). L. Dostal stopped 23 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdSOT
MTL20305
ANA21216
  1. 1st 0:39ANAC. Gauthier0.14 xG
  2. 1st 1:01MTLN. Suzuki0.09 xG
  3. 1st 3:33MTLL. HutsonPP0.05 xG
  4. 1st 11:56ANAR. Gudas0.01 xG
  5. 2nd 12:15ANAJ. LaCombePP0.05 xG
  6. 3rd 0:35ANAL. Carlsson0.15 xG
  7. 3rd 8:41MTLC. Caufield0.13 xG
  8. 3rd 11:47MTLA. Carrier0.06 xG
  9. 3rd 13:04MTLC. Caufield0.06 xG
  10. 3rd 19:18ANAC. Kreider0.10 xG

Team Stats

MTLANA
28Shots on goal33
3.69Expected goals3.55
67Shot attempts59
205v5 shots on goal26
1/4Power play1/2
21Hits17
15Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways13
3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.69 xGANA 3.55 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTANA goal, 0:39MTL goal, 1:01MTL goal, 3:33ANA goal, 11:56ANA goal, 12:15ANA goal, 0:35MTL goal, 8:41MTL goal, 11:47MTL goal, 13:04ANA goal, 19:18

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL28 on goal, 5 scored
ANA32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. CaufieldRW213400+2019:484:19
N. SuzukiC112200+1023:085:18
J. SlafkovskýLW022101+1021:135:19
J. EvansC011050+1017:140:00
Z. BolducRW011251+1015:541:12
K. DachC0003020016:581:20
I. DemidovRW000301-1015:114:38
A. NewhookC000211-3014:380:54
P. DanaultC0000100013:400:00
J. AndersonRW000001-1212:570:00
B. GallagherRW0003200012:181:22
O. KapanenC000000-1010:460:00
L. HutsonD123201+2025:514:21
N. DobsonD022411+1024:562:22
A. CarrierD1011010216:130:00
M. MathesonD000010-1023:160:15
K. GuhleD000025-1019:420:00
A. XhekajD000130-1011:060:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Montembeault33285.84865:00OT loss
J. Dobes000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. KreiderLW134400+2017:401:48
C. GauthierLW112500+2018:041:54
L. CarlssonC112400+1217:301:45
R. PoehlingC0111010022:250:00
F. VatranoRW0110310011:110:00
A. KillornLW000111-2020:100:27
B. SenneckeRW000521-1019:411:48
T. WasheC0000010014:100:00
J. VielLW000200+1012:360:18
R. JohnstonLW0000600010:430:00
M. McTavishC000010-1010:430:24
J. HarkinsC000120-1010:280:00
J. TroubaD022100+1228:360:24
J. LaCombeD112211+1027:071:59
R. GudasD101211+1219:110:00
O. ZellwegerD000303+1218:260:00
P. MintyukovD000201-2016:450:13
I. MooreD000001-2016:040:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal28235.82163:51Win
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1K. Dach15:38Z. Bolduc14:42J. Evans15:02
Line 2N. Suzuki15:13J. Slafkovský14:55C. Caufield14:01
Line 3P. Danault12:04J. Anderson11:37B. Gallagher10:56
Line 4A. Newhook12:37I. Demidov9:13O. Kapanen9:36
Pair 1N. Dobson20:43L. Hutson18:58
Pair 2M. Matheson20:07K. Guhle17:59
Pair 3A. Carrier15:28A. Xhekaj11:06

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn15:57B. Sennecke15:53R. Poehling17:09
Line 2C. Gauthier14:04L. Carlsson14:06C. Kreider13:08
Line 3R. Johnston10:43J. Viel12:18T. Washe11:42
Line 4F. Vatrano10:45J. Harkins10:28M. McTavish9:10
Pair 1J. Trouba22:46J. LaCombe23:03
Pair 2R. Gudas16:14O. Zellweger15:17
Pair 3P. Mintyukov13:59I. Moore13:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamChris Kreider MTL First game back in Anaheim, his team until May 20261 G, 3 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 3.4, ANA 3.4MTL 5, ANA 6
Total goals6.811
Shots on goalMTL 27.4, ANA 29.7MTL 28, ANA 33
Win chanceMTL 51%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.650.89234%1
MTL C. Caufield3.140.90336%2
ANA B. Sennecke2.550.93028%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.240.85228%1
MTL N. Suzuki2.221.01228%1
MTL N. Dobson2.140.62213%0
ANA J. Trouba2.110.4129%0
ANA C. Kreider2.040.73435%1
MTL J. Slafkovský2.010.73224%0
ANA A. Killorn2.010.52023%0
ANA M. McTavish2.000.59022%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.900.38120%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.820.63211%1
MTL M. Matheson1.800.53011%0
MTL B. Gallagher1.630.36015%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.630.2808%0
MTL I. Demidov1.630.81020%0
MTL L. Hutson1.621.02313%1
MTL O. Kapanen1.500.44019%0
ANA J. Viel1.520.20013%0
ANA R. Poehling1.410.53118%0
MTL A. Newhook1.420.43017%0
MTL P. Danault1.400.44015%0
MTL K. Guhle1.400.3509%0
MTL K. Dach1.330.42016%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.320.40117%0
MTL J. Anderson1.300.32016%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.220.41010%0
MTL J. Evans1.100.39113%0
ANA R. Gudas1.020.2213%1
ANA T. Washe1.000.22011%0
ANA I. Moore1.000.2505%0
MTL A. Carrier0.910.2916%1
ANA J. Harkins0.910.1808%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.610.0803%0
ANA R. Johnston0.600.2006%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.