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Game Recap
MTL4
BUF2
MTL beat BUF 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.22 expected goals to 2.27. C. Dvorak led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Dvorak had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Dobes stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| BUF | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 1:13MTLC. CaufieldPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 6:04BUFA. Tuch0.07 xG
- 2nd 7:33BUFJ.Kulich0.20 xG
- 2nd 13:33MTLJ. Anderson0.18 xG
- 2nd 19:57MTLA. Newhook0.05 xG
- 3rd 18:22MTLJ. EvansEN0.89 xG
Team Stats
MTLBUF
29Shots on goal25
3.22Expected goals2.27
57Shot attempts68
215v5 shots on goal18
1/4Power play0/2
27Hits28
28Blocked shots17
10Penalty minutes24
19Giveaways27
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 3.22 xGBUF 2.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 3:01 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 2:56 |
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:48 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 2:03 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 2:44 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:48 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:48 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:48 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:58 | 2:44 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 26:34 | 1:53 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 20:21 | 0:10 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 17:17 | 0:12 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:05 | 0:10 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:22 | 1:37 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 12 | 20:01 | 1:44 |
| J.Kulich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:33 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:17 | 1:36 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:44 | 0:33 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:08 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 1:44 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:33 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:51 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:44 | 1:44 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 22:07 | 0:40 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:33 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 58:41 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.0, BUF 3.3 | MTL 4, BUF 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 26.1, BUF 29.0 | MTL 29, BUF 25 |
| Win chance | BUF 55% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 2 | 0.97 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.0 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.6 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.1 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 3 | 0.87 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.7 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.5 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 4 | 0.39 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL O. Beck | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.5 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.