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Game Recap
MTL3
BUF5
BUF beat MTL 5-3, with the chances close: 3.20 expected goals to 2.64. T. Thompson scored three for BUF. M. Samuelsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. C. Ellis stopped 20 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 3:11MTLC. Caufield0.14 xG
- 1st 4:05BUFT. ThompsonPP0.12 xG
- 1st 10:30BUFJ. DoanPP0.14 xG
- 1st 14:20MTLI. DemidovPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 3:05MTLN. SuzukiPP0.19 xG
- 2nd 8:55BUFA. Tuch0.10 xG
- 3rd 5:12BUFT. Thompson0.16 xG
- 3rd 18:20BUFT. ThompsonEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
MTLBUF
23Shots on goal27
2.64Expected goals3.20
43Shot attempts57
175v5 shots on goal20
2/3Power play2/4
26Hits21
18Blocked shots6
12Penalty minutes10
13Giveaways14
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.64 xGBUF 3.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:17 | 2:28 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:17 | 2:28 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:10 | 2:21 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:28 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:02 | 0:49 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 1:01 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:04 | 1:01 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:58 | 1:01 |
| S. Blais | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:29 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 25:55 | 2:21 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:39 | 1:08 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:32 | 0:19 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Fowler | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 58:08 | Loss |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:43 | 5:13 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 5:13 |
| J. Doan | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:55 | 4:39 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:15 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:06 | 0:13 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 5:15 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:16 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:16 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:10 | 0:04 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:45 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:39 | 5:12 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 25:05 | 0:15 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:04 | 0:00 |
| Z. Metsa | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ellis | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 59:47 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki14:23C. Caufield13:02A. Texier12:44
Line 2O. Kapanen12:01J. Slafkovský12:17I. Demidov11:57
Line 3P. Danault12:05J. Anderson10:20Z. Bolduc10:50
Line 4B. Gallagher9:51J. Veleno9:13S. Blais7:29
Pair 1M. Matheson16:21N. Dobson16:53
Pair 2A. Carrier14:59L. Hutson19:27
BUF
Line 1A. Tuch12:45Z. Benson14:39T. Thompson12:25
Line 3P. Krebs10:42N. Ostlund10:53J. Doan11:37
Line 4J. Greenway9:20T. Kozak9:18B. Malenstyn7:44
Pair 2M. Samuelsson19:37R. Dahlin18:41
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.4, BUF 3.2 | MTL 3, BUF 5 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 27.0, BUF 27.2 | MTL 23, BUF 27 |
| Win chance | MTL 53% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 3 | 1.01 | 5 | 41% | 3 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 5 | 0.81 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.3 | 1 | 0.69 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 2.2 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 2 | 0.96 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.0 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.9 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.89 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 4 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL S. Blais | 0.7 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Metsa | 0.5 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.