Game Recap: MTL 4, BUF 2, January 31, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL4

FinalSat, Jan 31, 2026Every game that night

BUF2

MTL beat BUF 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.13 expected goals to 3.83. C. Caufield led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Slafkovský had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Dobes stopped 36 of 38.

Team Stats

MTLBUF

31Shots on goal38

3.13Expected goals3.83

48Shot attempts75

255v5 shots on goal30

1/3Power play1/4

29Hits24

20Blocked shots7

8Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways16

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.13 xGBUF 3.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL28 on goal, 3 scored

BUF36 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	2	1	3	5	3	1	+2	0	15:39	4:07
N. Suzuki	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	+3	0	18:52	4:13
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	17:28	0:47
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	7	2	0	+1	0	17:26	3:56
K. Dach	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	2	12:29	0:47
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:13	0:17
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:49	3:56
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:33	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:11	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:33	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	10:18	0:47
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:10	0:47
N. Dobson	D	0	2	2	4	2	2	+3	2	20:32	1:04
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	4	20:10	3:56
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	27:33	0:23
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:28	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	+2	0	19:29	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	38	36	2	.947	59:58	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	22:29	2:00
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	2	22:21	5:49
N. Ostlund	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	13:18	1:51
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:45	2:09
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	18:40	5:31
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	17:38	2:12
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:28	5:23
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	17:22	5:47
K. Helenius	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	9:54	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:38	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	8:46	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:49	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	4	3	1	0	0	26:03	5:55
O. Power	D	1	0	1	6	0	2	0	0	24:00	0:17
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	2	20:19	1:50
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	21:48	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:46	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	8:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	30	27	3	.900	57:43	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1O. Kapanen13:11I. Demidov12:41J. Slafkovský12:19

Line 2N. Suzuki12:14K. Dach11:14C. Caufield11:20

Line 3J. Evans11:07J. Veleno10:07Z. Bolduc8:57

Line 4B. Gallagher9:29J. Anderson10:04P. Danault12:13

Pair 1N. Dobson17:44L. Hutson15:46

Pair 2M. Matheson19:52K. Guhle15:43

Pair 3A. Carrier14:15A. Xhekaj7:09

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch15:38Z. Benson15:43T. Thompson15:17

Line 2J. Zucker12:22J. Quinn11:41R. McLeod11:43

Line 3N. Ostlund10:39J. Doan10:48K. Helenius9:54

Line 4B. Malenstyn6:56P. Krebs8:33T. Kozak6:08

Pair 1R. Dahlin17:41O. Power19:47

Pair 2M. Samuelsson17:14Z. Metsa10:41

Pair 3M. Kesselring7:57B. Byram16:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.4, BUF 3.5	MTL 4, BUF 2
Total goals	6.9	6
Shots on goal	MTL 27.1, BUF 27.1	MTL 31, BUF 38
Win chance	BUF 52%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	5	1.05	1	42%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	5	0.80	3	33%	2
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	4	0.92	1	19%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	1	0.82	1	31%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	4	0.75	0	27%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	2	0.91	2	27%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.0	3	0.66	0	24%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	7	0.70	1	24%	1
MTL N. Dobson	1.9	4	0.54	2	12%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	3	0.62	0	21%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.7	2	0.49	1	20%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.7	2	0.54	0	16%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	0	0.34	0	15%	0
BUF K. Helenius	1.6	3	0.49	0	15%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	6	0.43	1	7%	1
MTL I. Demidov	1.6	3	0.82	0	19%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	2	0.44	0	9%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	2	0.87	1	10%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.4	0	0.40	0	18%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	1	0.40	0	14%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.3	0	0.23	0	5%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.3	1	0.36	1	15%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	1	0.52	1	13%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	0	0.30	0	16%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	2	0.44	0	8%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	2	0.65	0	20%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	1	0.53	1	21%	1
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	0	0.28	0	7%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.35	0	13%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.35	0	11%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.29	0	6%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	1	0.18	0	8%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	0	0.18	0	11%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	0	0.08	0	3%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	0	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.