Game Recap: MTL 2, BUF 4, May 6, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL2

FinalWed, May 6, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

BUF4

BUF beat MTL 4-2, with the chances close: 2.52 expected goals to 2.76. MTL outshot BUF 28 to 16. J. Doan led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Newhook had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Lyon stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	1	0	2
BUF	2	2	0	4

1st 4:31BUFJ. Doan0.26 xG
1st 13:26BUFR. McLeodPP0.10 xG
1st 19:16MTLN. SuzukiPP0.36 xG
2nd 3:32BUFJ. Greenway0.03 xG
2nd 9:01BUFB. ByramPP0.17 xG
2nd 16:31MTLK. Dach0.14 xG

Team Stats

MTLBUF

28Shots on goal16

2.76Expected goals2.52

51Shot attempts45

195v5 shots on goal11

1/2Power play2/3

31Hits27

12Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes4

7Giveaways15

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.76 xGBUF 2.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL26 on goal, 2 scored

BUF16 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	2	21:02	3:13
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	19:41	3:13
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:19	3:13
K. Dach	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	9:46	0:05
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	8:53	0:05
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	19:08	3:13
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	16:52	0:05
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:49	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:46	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:20	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:44	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	8:33	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	2	26:42	3:13
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	24:09	0:05
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	21:00	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:45	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	18:22	0:05
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	7:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	16	12	4	.750	56:48	Loss
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Doan	RW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	17:26	2:34
Z. Benson	LW	0	2	2	1	2	0	+1	0	16:56	2:33
R. McLeod	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	14:33	2:23
J. Greenway	LW	1	0	1	1	5	0	+1	0	13:03	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:16	3:05
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:28	3:04
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	17:08	2:52
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:19	2:35
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:15	2:59
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	14:02	0:07
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:56	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	2	10:36	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	21:35	0:00
B. Byram	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	21:13	2:52
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	+1	2	21:04	2:47
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:39	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:41	0:24
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	28	26	2	.929	59:40	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki14:43C. Caufield13:14J. Slafkovský13:35

Line 2J. Evans12:41A. Newhook13:35I. Demidov12:53

Line 3P. Danault11:20J. Anderson12:43A. Texier11:18

Line 4J. Veleno8:26Z. Bolduc8:31K. Dach9:24

Pair 1L. Hutson19:42N. Dobson21:01

Pair 2M. Matheson15:37A. Carrier15:16

Pair 3K. Guhle15:54A. Xhekaj7:42

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson13:47P. Krebs13:07A. Tuch12:28

Line 2J. Norris12:18Z. Benson12:25J. Doan12:59

Line 3J. Zucker11:03J. Quinn12:22R. McLeod10:38

Line 4J. Greenway10:35T. Kozak10:47B. Malenstyn9:45

Pair 1M. Samuelsson16:39R. Dahlin17:32

Pair 2L. Stanley12:38C. Timmins15:01

Pair 3B. Byram16:47O. Power16:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, BUF 3.5	MTL 2, BUF 4
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	MTL 24.7, BUF 29.8	MTL 28, BUF 16
Win chance	BUF 59%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	0	1.05	0	42%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	2	0.81	0	34%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.8	1	0.94	0	36%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	4	0.87	0	19%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.4	1	0.64	0	22%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.4	4	0.77	1	27%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	3	1.01	1	29%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	0	0.70	0	27%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	3	0.52	2	22%	1
MTL N. Dobson	1.8	2	0.47	0	10%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	1	0.54	2	17%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.8	2	0.67	1	20%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	0	0.66	0	29%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	4	0.91	0	12%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	1	0.42	0	9%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	4	0.42	0	19%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	2	0.49	1	12%	1
BUF O. Power	1.4	0	0.38	0	7%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	0	0.32	0	18%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	1	0.38	0	16%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.4	0	0.53	0	15%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	1	0.37	0	15%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	0	0.34	1	8%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	2	0.64	2	20%	1
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	0	0.31	0	7%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.2	0	0.36	1	16%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	2	0.34	0	13%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.1	0	0.21	0	3%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.0	1	0.30	1	13%	1
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.30	0	6%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	1	0.22	1	9%	1
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.17	0	9%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	1	0.19	0	9%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	0	0.08	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.