Game Recap: MTL 5, BUF 1, May 8, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

MTL5

FinalFri, May 8, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

BUF1

MTL beat BUF 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.10 expected goals to 2.46. A. Newhook led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Tuch had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Dobes stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	2	1	2	5
BUF	0	1	0	1

1st 1:36MTLA. Newhook0.05 xG
1st 4:27MTLM. Matheson0.03 xG
2nd 4:47MTLA. Newhook0.23 xG
2nd 19:22BUFZ. Benson0.08 xG
3rd 3:54MTLA. Carrier0.09 xG
3rd 15:59MTLN. SuzukiEN0.54 xG

Team Stats

MTLBUF

28Shots on goal29

4.10Expected goals2.46

57Shot attempts63

175v5 shots on goal18

0/5Power play0/5

18Hits44

18Blocked shots11

20Penalty minutes12

11Giveaways13

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 4.10 xGBUF 2.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL28 on goal, 5 scored

BUF28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Newhook	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	0	16:46	2:00
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	20:03	6:08
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	16:32	1:35
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	+3	0	14:33	0:03
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	12	14:29	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	17:56	6:03
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:06	6:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	13:18	5:24
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:02	2:41
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:18	2:08
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:32	0:07
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	9:21	0:50
M. Matheson	D	1	0	1	3	1	3	+3	0	26:44	0:59
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	2	20:56	1:10
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:54	6:11
A. Carrier	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	+4	4	19:38	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	5	1	5	-1	0	16:20	1:29
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	2	9:32	0:42

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	2	19:25	4:23
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	2	16:28	4:15
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	6	2	1	-3	0	20:19	4:54
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-4	0	18:38	5:01
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	17:39	4:38
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	17:17	4:37
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:30	4:16
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:55	0:08
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	12:25	1:16
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	11:08	4:44
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:02	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:11	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	0	0	18:08	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	2	22:17	4:23
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	2	21:27	4:53
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	20:18	0:08
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	10	3	0	2	19:47	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	10:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	27	23	4	.852	58:13	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki12:26C. Caufield10:48J. Slafkovský11:06

Line 2P. Danault10:42J. Anderson10:43A. Texier8:10

Line 3J. Veleno9:41Z. Bolduc9:21K. Dach8:26

Line 4J. Evans8:00A. Newhook8:09I. Demidov7:54

Pair 1M. Matheson16:16A. Carrier14:26

Pair 2N. Dobson12:19L. Hutson12:55

Pair 3K. Guhle14:27A. Xhekaj8:06

BUF

Line 1J. Doan12:03Z. Benson13:21J. Norris11:26

Line 2T. Thompson12:03A. Tuch12:41P. Krebs10:48

Line 3R. McLeod10:30J. Quinn9:10J. Zucker6:24

Line 4J. Greenway6:25T. Kozak5:56B. Malenstyn4:05

Pair 1O. Power16:21B. Byram13:22

Pair 2R. Dahlin15:31M. Samuelsson14:42

Pair 3L. Stanley8:23C. Timmins10:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, BUF 3.5	MTL 5, BUF 1
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	MTL 24.8, BUF 29.1	MTL 28, BUF 29
Win chance	BUF 58%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	1	1.02	0	41%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	2	0.81	0	35%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.7	6	0.93	0	36%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	5	0.84	0	19%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.4	1	0.76	0	27%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.3	0	0.63	0	22%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	4	1.00	1	29%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	2	0.68	0	27%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	4	0.55	1	23%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.9	5	0.47	1	10%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.8	0	0.69	0	20%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	1	0.57	1	17%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.7	3	0.89	1	12%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	3	0.66	0	29%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	3	0.39	1	8%	1
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	4	0.42	2	19%	2
BUF B. Byram	1.4	1	0.49	0	13%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	0	0.32	1	18%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	0	0.37	0	7%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	0	0.36	0	15%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.3	1	0.51	0	15%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	0	0.36	1	14%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	0	0.35	0	9%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	2	0.61	0	19%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	1	0.29	1	7%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.1	1	0.34	0	15%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	2	0.34	1	13%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.1	0	0.22	1	4%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.0	0	0.29	0	12%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	1	0.28	1	6%	1
MTL J. Veleno	0.8	1	0.16	0	8%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	1	0.18	0	9%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.