CBJ beat MTL 5-4, with the chances close: 3.53 expected goals to 2.84. K. Marchenko led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Guhle had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Greaves stopped 27 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| CBJ | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 12:03CBJD. Voronkov0.15 xG
- 1st 18:45CBJK. Johnson0.81 xG
- 2nd 2:03MTLD. Savard0.16 xG
- 2nd 3:34CBJJ. Harris0.12 xG
- 2nd 7:03MTLL. Hutson0.03 xG
- 2nd 14:26MTLJ. Evans0.16 xG
- 3rd 0:20MTLJ. Armia0.17 xG
- 3rd 3:24CBJD. VoronkovPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 17:48CBJK. Marchenko0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.84 xGCBJ 3.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:27 | 1:02 |
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:22 | 1:01 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:17 |
| J. Armia | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:59 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:59 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 1:14 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:01 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:35 | 1:15 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:15 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:31 | 0:51 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:16 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:15 | 1:09 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:16 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 32 | 27 | 5 | .844 | 58:25 | Loss |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:17 | 1:25 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:37 | 1:24 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:43 | 1:30 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 1:25 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:00 | 1:06 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:20 | 1:07 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:54 | 1:01 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 28:44 | 1:25 |
| J. Harris | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:26 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 25:01 | 1:06 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 1:06 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 59:49 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.3, CBJ 3.5 | MTL 4, CBJ 5 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 27.4, CBJ 32.1 | MTL 31, CBJ 32 |
| Win chance | CBJ 55% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.3 | 7 | 1.02 | 3 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 4 | 0.82 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.7 | 4 | 0.78 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.6 | 5 | 0.86 | 3 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.5 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.2 | 4 | 0.69 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.2 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.8 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.6 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.3 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.1 | 5 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.