Game Recap: MTL 3, CBJ 4 (SO), November 17, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL3

Final/SOMon, Nov 17, 2025Every game that night

CBJ4

CBJ beat MTL 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.54 expected goals to 3.70. MTL outshot CBJ 32 to 23. L. Hutson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Hutson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Greaves stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
MTL	0	1	2	0	3
CBJ	1	2	0	1	4

1st 6:58CBJZ. Werenski0.10 xG
2nd 4:47MTLO. Kapanen0.17 xG
2nd 9:47CBJA. Fantilli0.22 xG
2nd 13:32CBJD. VoronkovPP0.13 xG
3rd 8:28MTLJ. Anderson0.44 xG
3rd 18:41MTLL. Hutson0.06 xG

Team Stats

MTLCBJ

32Shots on goal23

3.70Expected goals2.54

59Shot attempts45

255v5 shots on goal21

0/0Power play1/2

17Hits15

13Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes0

16Giveaways17

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.70 xGCBJ 2.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL32 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:05	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	18:13	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	17:30	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:25	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:11	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	21:15	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	18:47	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	15:05	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:03	0:00
J. Roy	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:30	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:31	0:00
J. Davidson	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	9:25	0:00
L. Hutson	D	1	1	2	5	2	1	+2	0	25:42	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	29:25	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	3	1	4	0	0	26:45	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:14	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:09	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	23	20	3	.870	64:28	OT loss
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	22:07	2:56
D. Voronkov	LW	1	1	2	3	3	1	+1	16:47	3:02
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	21:42	2:55
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:15	0:04
M. Olivier	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	14:59	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	19:05	2:42
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	+1	16:36	0:24
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	14:20	0:11
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	13:03	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:57	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	12:25	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:24	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	4	1	1	-1	29:41	2:39
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	27:16	0:27
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	19:56	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	19:21	0:10
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	15:23	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	10:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	32	29	3	.906	65:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki17:01C. Caufield17:03Z. Bolduc15:05

Line 2O. Kapanen15:47I. Demidov15:20J. Slafkovský17:44

Line 3J. Anderson14:13J. Evans14:22J. Roy11:30

Line 4J. Veleno9:31J. Davidson9:22B. Gallagher12:03

Pair 1M. Matheson24:43N. Dobson24:46

Pair 2L. Hutson22:53J. Struble15:09

Pair 3A. Carrier15:54A. Xhekaj9:24

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko16:47A. Fantilli17:04D. Voronkov13:45

Line 2C. Coyle15:05M. Olivier14:27C. Sillinger15:14

Line 3S. Monahan14:09E. Chinakhov13:03K. Johnson12:45

Line 4M. Wood12:24Z. Aston-Reese12:57I. Lundestrom11:10

Pair 1I. Provorov24:44Z. Werenski23:12

Pair 2D. Severson19:11D. Mateychuk19:47

Pair 3D. Fabbro15:23J. Christiansen10:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Monahan CBJ Faces MTL, his team until Jan 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.1, CBJ 3.4	MTL 3, CBJ 4
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	MTL 26.9, CBJ 29.8	MTL 32, CBJ 23
Win chance	CBJ 54%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	4	0.97	2	20%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	3	0.84	1	35%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.9	0	0.92	2	34%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.6	1	0.79	1	32%	1
MTL N. Dobson	2.2	3	0.61	1	12%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	2	0.97	0	29%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.2	3	0.70	2	28%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.0	0	0.82	0	25%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.9	0	0.33	0	16%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	2	0.56	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.9	5	0.48	0	17%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.7	0	0.42	0	17%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.7	3	0.44	1	10%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.6	2	0.41	0	20%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	1	0.45	0	10%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	0	0.56	1	21%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	2	0.55	0	20%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	3	0.32	1	17%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	1	0.40	1	16%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.4	0	0.31	0	14%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.3	2	0.64	1	18%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.3	5	0.79	2	8%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	0	0.40	0	9%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.2	1	0.36	1	15%	1
MTL J. Roy	1.2	1	0.27	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	2	0.41	0	12%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.1	0	0.30	0	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	2	0.36	1	12%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	0	0.27	0	6%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.0	1	0.19	0	9%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.9	1	0.11	0	4%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	2	0.20	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	1	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.