Game Recap: MTL 4, CHI 1, October 23, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL4

FinalFri, Oct 23, 2026Every game that night

CHI1

MTL beat CHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.72 expected goals to 1.89. J. Evans led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Fowler stopped 20 of 21.

Team Stats

MTLCHI

28Shots on goal21

2.72Expected goals1.89

52Shot attempts40

215v5 shots on goal15

0/3Power play0/5

23Hits11

11Blocked shots8

10Penalty minutes6

20Giveaways10

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.72 xGCHI 1.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL27 on goal, 3 scored

CHI21 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Evans	C	2	1	3	2	0	0	+4	0	17:12	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	18:15	0:14
K. Dach	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:32	0:00
O. Beck	C	0	1	1	2	4	1	+1	0	10:25	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	16:11	2:47
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	4	16:03	3:01
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:12	1:22
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:04	2:49
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:36	1:20
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	+2	0	13:19	0:14
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	13:08	1:21
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	11:19	1:08
K. Guhle	D	1	1	2	2	3	2	+2	0	23:30	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+2	0	22:40	0:22
M. Matheson	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	20:15	1:35
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	22:04	2:46
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	19:48	2:51
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	21	20	1	.952	59:55	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-2	2	20:53	5:31
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	2	20:06	5:18
R. Kantserov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	19:39	5:35
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	17:53	2:51
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:46	5:32
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	15:24	5:13
A. Frondell	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:06	2:30
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:33	2:45
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	13:27	0:05
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	13:16	0:03
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	12:46	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:07	2:46
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	21:40	0:15
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	19:24	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:02	0:17
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	18:22	0:04
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:17	3:05
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	10:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	27	24	3	.889	59:14	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1C. Caufield13:13J. Slafkovský12:50O. Kapanen12:05

Line 2A. Texier12:10Z. Bolduc11:41P. Danault11:46

Line 3O. Beck10:12K. Dach10:17J. Evans10:22

Line 4C. Kreider9:57J. Anderson9:01A. Newhook10:26

Pair 1A. Carrier17:01K. Guhle18:21

Pair 2M. Matheson13:10L. Hutson17:23

Pair 3A. Xhekaj10:05N. Dobson13:25

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard12:50R. Kantserov13:27P. Kane13:37

Line 2C. Smith11:52R. Greene11:19J. Greenway11:08

Line 3F. Nazar11:53R. Donato10:09O. Moore8:21

Line 4T. Teravainen8:28A. Frondell10:26T. Bertuzzi10:36

Pair 1W. Kaiser15:52A. Levshunov16:29

Pair 2I. Cole15:38A. Vlasic17:59

Pair 3E. Mastro9:54S. Rinzel13:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 16 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MTL C. Caufield	3.5	+102	-125	4	Over
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	-140	+120	1	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.5	-102	-105	3	Over
MTL N. Dobson	2.5	+108	-140	2	Under
CHI P. Kane	2.5	+135	-152	3	Over
CHI A. Frondell	1.5	-164	+135	1	Under
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	-120	+100	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	1.5	-110	-110	1	Under
CHI F. Nazar	1.5	-105	-110	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	-125	+110	3	Over
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	-145	+120	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	1.5	-160	+150	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	1.5	+110	-145	3	Over
CHI S. Rinzel	1.5	+115	–	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	-110	-110	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	-105	-120	1	Under

4 of 34 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+340	-450	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+430	-750	0	Under
CHI A. Vlasic	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+170	-240	1	Over
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
CHI C. Smith	0.5	+1100	-1400	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+380	-475	0	Under
CHI I. Cole	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+400	-475	0	Under
MTL J. Evans	0.5	+650	-1000	2	Over
CHI J. Greenway	0.5	+1100	-5000	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+195	-210	0	Under
MTL K. Dach	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
MTL K. Guhle	0.5	+1300	-4000	1	Over
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+850	-1600	1	Over
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
MTL O. Beck	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+290	-370	0	Under
CHI O. Moore	0.5	+575	-900	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+575	-800	0	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+285	-390	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
CHI R. Greene	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
CHI S. Rinzel	0.5	+850	-2800	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+475	-550	0	Under
CHI W. Kaiser	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+360	-500	0	Under

2 of 17 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+215	-290	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+235	-320	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+112	-130	0	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+115	-130	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+230	-285	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+126	-135	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-150	+120	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+190	-215	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+260	-360	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+130	-140	1	Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+190	-220	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under

3 of 17 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MTL C. Caufield	1.5	+176	-190	0	Under
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+115	-145	0	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+140	-185	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	-190	+155	1	Over
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	-105	-115	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+124	-135	0	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+176	-180	0	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	-175	+165	0	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-190	+160	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+160	-215	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	-132	+125	1	Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+116	-132	0	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+155	-190	0	Under

0 of 17 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+360	-425	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+180	-215	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+190	-260	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+450	-525	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+300	-600	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+210	-300	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+210	-250	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+235	-400	Under
MTL O. Kapanen	0.5	+280	-450	Under
CHI O. Moore	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+195	-275	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+270	-400	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+340	-400	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CHI S. Knight	26.5	-112	-105	24	Under
MTL J. Fowler	21.5	-120	+100	20	Under

3 of 6 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MTL A. Carrier	1.5	-125	-115	3	Over
CHI I. Cole	1.5	-150	+105	2	Over
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	+120	-170	0	Under
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	-110	-130	1	Under
MTL N. Dobson	1.5	+100	-140	2	Over
CHI W. Kaiser	1.5	-105	-135	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.3, CHI 2.7	MTL 4, CHI 1
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	MTL 27.4, CHI 25.3	MTL 28, CHI 21
Win chance	MTL 58%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.2	4	0.97	0	38%	0
CHI C. Bedard	3.0	1	1.02	1	32%	1
CHI P. Kane	2.6	3	0.94	1	28%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.3	3	0.80	0	26%	0
CHI A. Frondell	2.3	1	0.64	0	20%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	0	0.76	0	29%	0
CHI R. Kantserov	1.9	4	0.74	0	29%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.7	0	0.52	0	20%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.7	0	1.01	0	14%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	0	0.53	0	22%	0
MTL C. Kreider	1.6	1	0.62	0	28%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.6	2	0.45	0	10%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	3	0.48	1	11%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.6	3	0.38	0	19%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.5	0	0.37	0	16%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.4	1	0.48	0	19%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.4	1	0.43	0	19%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.4	0	0.28	0	6%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	0	0.41	0	16%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	3	0.45	1	16%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.2	2	0.57	0	20%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	0	0.36	0	11%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	1	0.30	0	4%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	2	0.37	2	8%	1
CHI R. Greene	1.0	3	0.30	0	13%	0
CHI J. Greenway	1.0	2	0.24	0	11%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	2	0.36	3	13%	2
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.27	0	4%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	0	0.25	0	6%	0
CHI C. Smith	0.9	2	0.23	0	10%	0
MTL K. Dach	0.9	1	0.27	1	11%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.38	1	8%	0
CHI I. Cole	0.8	0	0.24	0	4%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
MTL O. Beck	0.8	2	0.10	1	6%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.