Game Recap: MTL 3, DAL 1, January 16, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL3

FinalThu, Jan 16, 2025Every game that night

DAL1

MTL beat DAL 3-1, with the chances close: 3.97 expected goals to 3.36. DAL outshot MTL 33 to 24. N. Suzuki led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Blümel had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Dobes stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	0	2	3
DAL	1	0	0	1

1st 3:50DALJ. Robertson0.39 xG
1st 4:37MTLJ. Slafkovský0.18 xG
3rd 9:15MTLA. Newhook0.08 xG
3rd 19:43MTLJ. ArmiaEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

MTLDAL

24Shots on goal33

3.97Expected goals3.36

50Shot attempts74

175v5 shots on goal26

0/3Power play0/4

33Hits25

23Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways9

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.97 xGDAL 3.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL24 on goal, 3 scored

DAL32 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	2	2	1	3	1	+2	0	19:15	2:41
J. Armia	RW	1	0	1	2	8	1	+1	0	17:24	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:09	2:42
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	2	15:13	1:29
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	0	14:49	2:40
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:13	2:04
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:08	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	15:50	1:43
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:43	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	13:19	1:30
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	12:19	1:31
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	4:31	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	20:39	2:28
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	26:57	2:07
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	20:18	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	19:57	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+2	0	15:43	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	0	12:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	33	32	1	.970	59:45	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	0	21:29	4:25
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	-1	0	20:29	4:39
E. Dadonov	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	0	14:56	1:41
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	21:11	4:22
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	20:18	4:34
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	20:00	1:36
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:02	1:26
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:36	1:25
M. Blümel	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	11:28	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:01	0:01
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:31	0:06
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:42	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	-3	0	26:59	4:18
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	23:55	1:41
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	21:29	0:11
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	14:29	0:11
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	13:45	0:08
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:35	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	23	21	2	.913	57:10	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayMatt Duchene DAL Turns 34 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.6, DAL 3.5	MTL 3, DAL 1
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	MTL 24.5, DAL 31.7	MTL 24, DAL 33
Win chance	DAL 66%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL W. Johnston	2.9	3	0.85	1	33%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	2	0.70	1	30%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.7	4	1.03	1	35%	1
DAL L. Stankoven	2.4	3	0.55	0	18%	0
DAL J. Benn	2.2	1	0.86	0	28%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	4	0.74	0	12%	0
DAL M. Duchene	2.1	1	0.95	0	34%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.1	1	0.58	0	24%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.0	2	0.51	0	10%	0
DAL T. Harley	2.0	3	0.57	0	12%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.8	1	0.73	2	24%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.7	3	0.55	1	21%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.5	2	0.34	1	15%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	3	0.32	0	14%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.4	2	0.29	0	5%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.4	2	0.45	0	15%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.4	1	0.37	0	14%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	1	0.34	0	7%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	1	0.28	0	15%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.3	3	0.47	1	15%	1
DAL C. Blackwell	1.3	0	0.28	0	14%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	0	0.26	0	7%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.2	1	0.34	1	15%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	1	0.60	1	6%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.1	2	0.32	0	12%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.1	0	0.27	0	4%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	0	0.13	0	4%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.37	0	12%	0
DAL M. Blümel	0.9	4	0.17	0	10%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.15	0	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.8	0	0.34	0	12%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.20	0	2%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.6	2	0.21	0	4%	0
MTL M. Pezzetta	0.4	1	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.