Game Recap: MTL 4, DAL 3 (OT), January 4, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL4

Final/OTSun, Jan 4, 2026Every game that night

DAL3

MTL beat DAL 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.39 expected goals to 4.01. W. Johnston led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Bourque had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Montembeault stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MTL	1	2	0	1	4
DAL	1	1	1	0	3

1st 8:42MTLB. Gallagher0.18 xG
1st 13:53DALM. Bourque0.05 xG
2nd 10:14DALW. Johnston0.21 xG
2nd 11:59MTLO. Kapanen0.09 xG
2nd 18:39MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.11 xG
3rd 11:07DALW. Johnston0.51 xG
OT 3:40MTLL. Hutson0.18 xG

Team Stats

MTLDAL

28Shots on goal27

3.39Expected goals4.01

56Shot attempts52

175v5 shots on goal24

1/5Power play0/3

30Hits15

13Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes10

14Giveaways15

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.39 xGDAL 4.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL27 on goal, 4 scored

DAL26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	20:21	5:27
P. Danault	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	2	16:40	0:42
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	23:49	5:21
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	2	18:10	5:17
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	3	0	3	0	0	17:24	1:47
B. Gallagher	RW	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0	15:46	2:15
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:33	5:10
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:45	1:41
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	14:41	0:07
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:06	1:47
S. Blais	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	8:20	0:00
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:17	0:00
L. Hutson	D	1	1	2	1	2	0	+2	0	27:58	5:11
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	22:14	0:01
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-3	0	26:38	1:01
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	3	3	6	-2	0	23:08	2:33
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	9:14	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	7:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	27	24	3	.889	63:40	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	2	0	2	3	0	2	+1	2	22:48	4:42
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	23:18	5:11
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	22:39	4:52
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:03	3:47
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:34	1:24
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	16:23	0:29
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	12:57	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:47	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:58	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	9:48	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	8:41	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	7:46	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	5	0	4	+1	0	27:27	3:58
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	1	2	5	+1	0	24:24	1:13
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	22:22	0:19
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	15:27	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:25	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	28	24	4	.857	63:19	OT loss
R. Poirier	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki13:53C. Caufield11:20A. Texier13:19

Line 2O. Kapanen12:23J. Slafkovský13:18I. Demidov11:20

Line 3B. Gallagher13:18P. Danault13:18Z. Bolduc9:06

Line 4S. Blais8:20J. Veleno10:53O. Beck7:17

Pair 1A. Carrier18:34L. Hutson20:36

Pair 2M. Matheson18:36N. Dobson17:14

Pair 3J. Struble7:56A. Xhekaj9:14

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson16:36R. Hintz12:56M. Bourque14:50

Line 2W. Johnston14:40M. Duchene14:10M. Rantanen15:29

Line 3R. Faksa8:31O. Bäck8:17A. Erne8:41

Line 4S. Steel8:40J. Hryckowian6:59J. Benn7:46

Pair 1E. Lindell17:03M. Heiskanen15:49

Pair 2A. Petrovic14:50I. Lyubushkin12:57

Pair 3N. Lundkvist13:57T. Harley17:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.6, DAL 3.3	MTL 4, DAL 3
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	MTL 24.9, DAL 25.6	MTL 28, DAL 27
Win chance	DAL 60%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.3	2	1.19	1	41%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	1	0.73	0	30%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	1	1.23	1	37%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.3	3	0.54	0	11%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	3	0.92	2	35%	2
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	3	0.83	1	25%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	5	0.79	1	14%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	0	0.88	1	32%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	4	0.60	2	21%	1
MTL O. Kapanen	1.8	3	0.44	1	18%	1
DAL M. Bourque	1.7	5	0.42	1	18%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	4	0.34	1	14%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	0	0.37	0	8%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	1	0.73	2	7%	1
DAL M. Duchene	1.5	4	0.71	1	26%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.5	1	0.53	1	13%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	0	0.56	0	20%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	2	0.72	1	18%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	3	0.39	0	18%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	1	0.36	0	14%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	2	0.37	2	12%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	0	0.27	0	6%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	0	0.37	0	15%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	0	0.37	0	9%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	2	0.36	0	12%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	0	0.24	1	4%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.0	0	0.19	0	5%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.18	0	9%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.8	1	0.22	0	10%	0
MTL O. Beck	0.8	0	0.12	0	7%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	1	0.31	0	9%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	1	0.07	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.20	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	2	0.25	0	9%	0
MTL S. Blais	0.6	0	0.19	0	6%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.5	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.