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Game Recap
MTL5
FinalThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night
DAL2

MTL beat DAL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.68 expected goals to 1.73. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Dobes stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MTL3115
DAL1102
  1. 1st 7:24MTLC. Caufield0.14 xG
  2. 1st 12:53DALW. JohnstonPP0.13 xG
  3. 1st 16:05MTLA. Newhook0.18 xG
  4. 1st 16:32MTLC. Caufield0.18 xG
  5. 2nd 6:11MTLA. Newhook0.37 xG
  6. 2nd 8:52DALJ. Benn0.12 xG
  7. 3rd 19:12MTLP. DanaultEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

MTLDAL
21Shots on goal19
3.68Expected goals1.73
44Shot attempts38
145v5 shots on goal12
0/4Power play1/3
13Hits16
9Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways17
4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.68 xGDAL 1.73 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdMTL goal, 7:24DAL goal, 12:53MTL goal, 16:05MTL goal, 16:32MTL goal, 6:11DAL goal, 8:52MTL goal, 19:12

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL21 on goal, 5 scored
DAL19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
P. DanaultC112200+2019:260:17
A. NewhookC202211+2018:473:32
C. CaufieldRW202300+2018:214:34
J. SlafkovskýLW011000+2018:264:32
J. EvansC011101+1016:570:15
C. KreiderLW011110+1012:233:26
J. AndersonRW000120+1215:420:03
Z. BolducRW0002110015:204:18
A. TexierLW000110+1014:343:26
K. DachC0000000013:294:09
O. KapanenC000010+1011:503:04
F. XhekajLW000140006:540:00
N. DobsonD022412+1020:243:15
A. CarrierD011000+2223:470:02
L. HutsonD0111020021:554:43
A. EngstromD011001+1010:420:00
K. GuhleD000101+2025:020:24
A. XhekajD000110+1211:020:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Dobes19172.89560:00Win
J. Fowler000–0:00

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. RantanenRW0221100223:044:54
W. JohnstonC1122100021:414:18
J. BennLW101211-1011:580:05
J. RobertsonLW000401-1021:324:54
R. HintzC000111-1019:274:17
T. SeguinC000030-1017:010:40
S. SteelC000010-1216:210:00
A. HyryRW000311-3013:210:05
J. HryckowianC000120-1013:200:38
J. KivirantaLW000020-2010:040:00
C. BlackwellC000000-208:450:00
M. SeminoffRW000001-104:350:00
M. HeiskanenD011300-2029:474:40
T. HarleyD000113-1224:530:19
N. LundkvistD000001-2017:010:05
L. BichselD000110-2216:010:00
T. MyersD0000010014:430:00
T. TaylorD0000100010:440:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Oettinger20164.80057:42Loss
C. DeSmith000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1C. Caufield13:33J. Slafkovský13:30A. Newhook12:54
Line 2A. Texier11:08Z. Bolduc11:02P. Danault14:52
Line 3C. Kreider8:57O. Kapanen8:46J. Anderson11:23
Line 4F. Xhekaj6:31K. Dach9:02J. Evans12:03
Pair 1A. Carrier20:15K. Guhle20:04
Pair 2L. Hutson16:43N. Dobson13:25
Pair 3A. Engstrom10:15A. Xhekaj9:12

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen15:52W. Johnston15:00S. Steel12:45
Line 2R. Hintz13:30J. Robertson14:20T. Seguin14:23
Line 3J. Kiviranta7:22A. Hyry9:03J. Benn11:30
Line 4C. Blackwell6:07J. Hryckowian9:44M. Seminoff4:35
Pair 1T. Harley21:57M. Heiskanen17:43
Pair 2L. Bichsel13:17N. Lundkvist15:47
Pair 3T. Myers10:19T. Taylor10:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 14 overs hit (43%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
DAL J. Robertson3.5+140-1604Over
MTL C. Caufield2.5-138+1203Over
MTL J. Slafkovský2.5+154-1700Under
DAL M. Rantanen2.5+150-1851Under
DAL R. Hintz2.5+146-1651Under
DAL W. Johnston2.5-118-1052Under
DAL A. Hyry1.5-110-1153Over
MTL L. Hutson1.5+108-1251Under
DAL M. Heiskanen1.5-156+1353Over
MTL N. Dobson1.5-105-1104Over
MTL O. Kapanen1.5+125-1600Under
DAL T. Harley1.5-115-1051Under
DAL T. Seguin1.5-135+1250Under
MTL Z. Bolduc1.5+120-1202Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 2.7, DAL 3.3MTL 5, DAL 2
Total goals5.97
Shots on goalMTL 23.0, DAL 28.2MTL 21, DAL 19
Win chanceDAL 60%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DAL J. Robertson3.341.07038%0
DAL W. Johnston2.620.91236%1
MTL C. Caufield2.630.72231%2
DAL M. Rantanen2.211.10234%0
DAL R. Hintz2.110.77028%0
DAL M. Heiskanen2.030.73113%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.000.61121%0
DAL T. Harley1.910.52011%0
MTL N. Dobson1.940.48211%0
DAL T. Seguin1.900.58023%0
DAL A. Hyry1.530.32017%0
MTL A. Newhook1.420.44219%2
MTL J. Anderson1.410.31016%0
MTL L. Hutson1.410.76111%0
DAL S. Steel1.300.43015%0
DAL J. Kiviranta1.300.23011%0
MTL P. Danault1.220.40214%1
MTL C. Kreider1.210.44121%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.200.30014%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.220.37016%0
DAL J. Benn1.220.41116%1
MTL A. Texier1.110.33013%0
MTL K. Guhle1.110.3408%0
DAL N. Lundkvist1.000.2505%0
DAL T. Myers1.000.1904%0
DAL J. Hryckowian1.010.32015%0
DAL C. Blackwell1.000.1908%0
MTL J. Evans0.910.34112%0
MTL K. Dach0.900.25010%0
MTL F. Xhekaj0.810.1406%0
MTL A. Engstrom0.800.0912%0
DAL L. Bichsel0.710.1806%0
MTL A. Carrier0.700.2615%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.