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Game Recap
MTL4
FinalSat, Dec 28, 2024Every game that night
FLA0

MTL beat FLA 4-0, with the chances close: 2.03 expected goals to 2.31. FLA outshot MTL 34 to 25. K. Dach led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Kulikov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Dobes stopped 34 of 34.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MTL0314
FLA0000
  1. 2nd 1:39MTLK. Dach0.19 xG
  2. 2nd 13:51MTLK. Dach0.18 xG
  3. 2nd 17:19MTLJ. EvansSH0.08 xG
  4. 3rd 14:17MTLC. Caufield0.24 xG

Team Stats

MTLFLA
25Shots on goal34
2.03Expected goals2.31
41Shot attempts66
225v5 shots on goal34
0/1Power play0/1
14Hits19
21Blocked shots10
7Penalty minutes7
9Giveaways13
1Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.03 xGFLA 2.31 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdMTL goal, 1:39MTL goal, 13:51MTL goal, 17:19MTL goal, 14:17

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL25 on goal, 4 scored
FLA33 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. DachC202312+2016:020:30
A. NewhookC022201+2014:520:30
C. CaufieldRW101300+1015:021:30
J. SlafkovskýLW011100+1014:341:30
J. EvansC101100+1013:510:00
N. SuzukiC000200+1016:361:30
P. LaineLW000102+2016:351:30
J. AndersonRW0002100015:470:00
J. ArmiaRW000001+1014:270:00
B. GallagherRW0000000014:170:30
C. DvorakC0002100214:090:00
E. HeinemanLW0000310013:570:30
K. GuhleD011004+3021:290:00
M. MathesonD000402+2022:330:30
A. CarrierD000041+1019:390:00
D. SavardD0001020019:120:00
L. HutsonD000202+2019:071:30
A. XhekajD0001430516:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Dobes343401.00059:44Win
S. Montembeault000–0:00

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. BarkovC000020-3019:540:51
S. ReinhartC000202-2018:550:51
A. LundellC0004100017:251:09
E. RodriguesC000221-1017:211:09
C. VerhaegheC000020-2016:320:51
M. TkachukLW000300-2016:180:51
E. LuostarinenC000111-1015:450:00
S. BennettC000430-1015:091:09
J. BoqvistC000120-1014:490:00
M. SamoskevichRW0000100211:131:09
T. NosekLW000010009:360:00
A. GreerLW000211057:350:00
G. ForslingD000411-1023:170:00
A. EkbladD000220-2022:580:51
U. BalinskisD000202-2019:540:00
D. KulikovD000402-2018:490:00
N. SchmidtD0001000016:480:00
A. BoqvistD0002000016:161:09
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight25214.84059:26Loss
S. Bobrovsky000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 2.7, FLA 3.8MTL 4, FLA 0
Total goals6.54
Shots on goalMTL 23.9, FLA 33.4MTL 25, FLA 34
Win chanceFLA 67%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.900.92036%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.831.11033%0
FLA S. Reinhart2.721.13044%0
FLA S. Bennett2.640.76029%0
FLA A. Barkov2.601.22034%0
MTL C. Caufield2.530.67128%1
FLA G. Forsling2.340.55013%0
FLA A. Ekblad2.020.60012%0
MTL M. Matheson1.940.59010%0
FLA E. Rodrigues1.920.53020%0
FLA A. Lundell1.940.62020%0
MTL P. Laine1.910.55023%0
MTL N. Suzuki1.620.71023%0
MTL B. Gallagher1.500.37016%0
FLA M. Samoskevich1.400.36017%0
MTL J. Slafkovský1.410.50116%0
MTL J. Armia1.300.34015%0
MTL J. Anderson1.320.30016%0
MTL A. Xhekaj1.310.2106%0
FLA U. Balinskis1.220.2504%0
MTL K. Dach1.230.33212%2
FLA E. Luostarinen1.210.43016%0
FLA A. Greer1.220.27012%0
MTL L. Hutson1.120.6105%0
MTL A. Newhook1.120.35216%0
MTL K. Guhle1.100.2616%0
MTL C. Dvorak1.120.35013%0
FLA D. Kulikov1.040.2805%0
FLA A. Boqvist1.020.3308%0
MTL A. Carrier1.000.2604%0
FLA N. Schmidt1.010.2906%0
FLA J. Boqvist1.010.35015%0
FLA T. Nosek0.900.2207%0
MTL E. Heineman0.900.36015%0
MTL J. Evans0.810.39112%1
MTL D. Savard0.710.2805%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.