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Game Recap
MTL4
FLA2
MTL beat FLA 4-2, with the chances close: 2.61 expected goals to 2.81. N. Suzuki led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Montembeault stopped 24 of 26.
Team Stats
MTLFLA
23Shots on goal26
2.61Expected goals2.81
46Shot attempts77
185v5 shots on goal23
2/3Power play0/2
19Hits32
23Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes20
10Giveaways15
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.61 xGFLA 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:44 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 1:41 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:25 | 0:03 |
| P. Laine | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 1:43 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:01 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:43 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:43 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:31 | 1:44 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:42 | 0:01 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 22:42 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 21:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 2:24 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 | 2:27 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:48 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:49 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:13 | 2:27 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:47 | 2:20 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:51 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:47 | 0:48 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:11 | 2:23 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:33 | 0:04 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 12 | 21:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:54 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 59:17 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.7, FLA 3.7 | MTL 4, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 24.2, FLA 33.4 | MTL 23, FLA 26 |
| Win chance | FLA 66% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.2 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.9 | 4 | 1.09 | 1 | 43% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 5 | 0.79 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.7 | 4 | 0.70 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.4 | 2 | 1.15 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.3 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.3 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 2 | 0.82 | 3 | 26% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.70 | 3 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.