Game Recap: MTL 3, NJD 5, November 7, 2024

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Game Recap

MTL3

FinalThu, Nov 7, 2024Every game that night

NJD5

NJD beat MTL 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.94 expected goals to 2.31. J. Bratt led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). O. Palat had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Markstrom stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	2	1	3
NJD	2	1	2	5

1st 1:33NJDJ. Bratt0.06 xG
1st 12:38NJDO. Palat0.11 xG
2nd 5:00MTLA. Newhook0.07 xG
2nd 10:20NJDJ. Siegenthaler0.14 xG
2nd 19:01MTLB. Gallagher0.29 xG
3rd 6:23NJDJ. Hughes0.19 xG
3rd 8:13MTLA. Newhook0.11 xG
3rd 19:34NJDJ. BrattEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

MTLNJD

24Shots on goal27

2.31Expected goals3.94

53Shot attempts51

225v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play0/3

25Hits22

13Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways10

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.31 xGNJD 3.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL23 on goal, 3 scored

NJD26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Newhook	C	2	0	2	3	3	0	0	0	19:17	2:09
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	16:33	0:04
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:12	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	14:38	2:05
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	3	5	0	-1	0	13:44	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	19:26	1:39
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:39	1:50
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	16:24	1:53
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	16:09	1:51
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	12:06	2:06
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	8:59	2:17
L. Condotta	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	7:28	0:02
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	2	20:24	0:04
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	14:34	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	27:37	2:05
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	22:27	1:55
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	19:09	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	26	22	4	.846	58:11	Loss
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	1	2	3	5	0	0	+3	0	20:43	4:45
J. Bratt	LW	2	1	3	5	1	0	+3	2	17:57	3:43
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	17:03	1:09
O. Palat	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	15:55	0:43
P. Cotter	LW	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	14:42	0:43
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:56	4:01
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:56	1:27
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:10	4:02
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:54	1:16
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:07	1:12
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	6:24	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	5:54	0:06
J. Siegenthaler	D	1	0	1	3	2	1	+2	0	20:57	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	18:58	4:46
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:02	0:37
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	18:13	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+3	2	18:09	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	18:09	1:30

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	24	21	3	.875	59:51	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJake Allen NJD Faces MTL, his team until Mar 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, NJD 3.7	MTL 3, NJD 5
Total goals	6.7	8
Shots on goal	MTL 25.6, NJD 32.9	MTL 24, NJD 27
Win chance	NJD 62%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	5	1.23	3	40%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.2	1	0.75	0	34%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.2	1	0.88	0	36%	0
NJD N. Hischier	3.0	0	1.11	0	35%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.8	2	0.74	1	15%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.7	5	0.98	3	29%	2
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	1	0.81	0	27%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.9	1	0.41	1	18%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.9	2	0.68	0	11%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	1	0.62	0	27%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.9	1	0.50	1	20%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.8	1	0.61	0	20%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.8	1	0.32	0	6%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.7	1	0.50	0	17%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.7	0	0.64	0	23%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.7	0	0.34	0	17%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.5	0	0.59	0	9%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.5	1	0.45	1	20%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	3	0.30	1	16%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	4	0.47	1	18%	1
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	3	0.44	2	18%	2
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	2	0.37	1	7%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.2	0	0.39	0	16%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.2	1	0.34	0	8%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.1	3	0.27	1	4%	1
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.1	0	0.19	0	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.38	1	12%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.0	2	0.34	1	13%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.0	0	0.48	0	5%	0
NJD B. Dillon	1.0	0	0.34	0	6%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.9	1	0.28	0	13%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	0	0.19	1	4%	0
MTL E. Heineman	0.8	2	0.22	0	12%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	3	0.32	0	5%	0
NJD K. MacDermid	0.5	1	0.10	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.