Game Recap: MTL 3, NJD 4 (OT), November 6, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL3

Final/OTThu, Nov 6, 2025Every game that night

NJD4

NJD beat MTL 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.74 expected goals to 1.90. NJD outshot MTL 28 to 19. J. Hughes led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Glass had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Markstrom stopped 16 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MTL	1	0	2	0	3
NJD	1	1	1	1	4

1st 1:53NJDC. Glass0.06 xG
1st 2:59MTLK. Dach0.04 xG
2nd 8:05NJDO. Palat0.21 xG
3rd 0:59MTLJ. Evans0.02 xG
3rd 10:33MTLO. Kapanen0.14 xG
3rd 18:53NJDT. Meier0.17 xG
OT 1:33NJDJ. Bratt0.33 xG

Team Stats

MTLNJD

19Shots on goal28

1.90Expected goals2.74

41Shot attempts60

165v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play0/5

14Hits19

21Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways15

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 1.90 xGNJD 2.74 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL18 on goal, 3 scored

NJD28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Evans	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	18:01	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	15:56	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	15:17	0:17
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	12:11	0:00
K. Dach	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	11:37	0:15
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:01	2:05
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	18:35	2:03
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:08	2:02
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:44	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	11:30	0:18
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	10:27	2:05
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:11	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	+3	0	20:59	0:15
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	0	1	5	+1	0	27:16	0:06
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	26:52	2:14
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	17:56	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	4	16:08	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	28	24	4	.857	61:29	OT loss
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	0	2	2	6	1	1	0	0	24:27	6:44
J. Bratt	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	22:30	6:19
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	20:51	5:13
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+2	2	16:50	1:47
O. Palat	LW	1	0	1	1	4	2	+1	0	15:24	1:08
C. Glass	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	13:30	1:03
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	22:53	6:30
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	15:29	1:38
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:10	2:07
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:06	0:00
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7:49	0:01
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:04	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	19:44	1:14
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	28:56	5:59
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:51	0:10
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	4	4	0	0	18:30	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:41	0:36
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:09	1:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	19	16	3	.842	60:18	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:25J. Slafkovský14:52C. Caufield14:23

Line 2J. Anderson10:00J. Evans10:55J. Veleno11:40

Line 3B. Gallagher11:12K. Dach10:28Z. Bolduc8:54

Line 4A. Newhook11:58O. Kapanen10:36I. Demidov8:02

Pair 1L. Hutson22:05J. Struble15:08

Pair 2M. Matheson17:49N. Dobson17:25

Pair 3A. Carrier10:58A. Xhekaj9:55

NJD

Line 1N. Hischier12:41D. Mercer12:16T. Meier13:21

Line 2O. Palat14:00A. Gritsyuk13:51C. Glass12:05

Line 3J. Hughes13:48J. Bratt12:02S. Noesen10:55

Line 4J. Lammikko7:48P. Cotter9:06L. Glendening7:04

Pair 1B. Dillon18:10L. Hughes17:56

Pair 2S. Nemec17:46D. Cholowski13:31

Pair 3J. Siegenthaler17:21D. Hamilton8:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJake Allen NJD Faces MTL, his team until Mar 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, NJD 3.2	MTL 3, NJD 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	MTL 25.3, NJD 28.3	MTL 19, NJD 28
Win chance	NJD 54%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.7	6	1.15	2	39%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	2	0.76	0	33%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.9	1	0.68	0	16%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.9	5	0.69	1	31%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	0	0.92	0	33%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	3	0.95	1	27%	1
MTL N. Dobson	2.2	2	0.56	2	10%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.1	2	0.40	0	15%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	1	0.88	0	27%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	4	0.58	0	22%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	0	0.45	1	9%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	1	0.57	1	26%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.8	0	0.57	0	7%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	1	0.42	0	19%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.6	0	0.39	0	19%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	0	0.37	0	15%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.5	4	0.34	1	14%	1
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	1	0.38	1	17%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	1	0.28	1	16%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.2	2	0.34	1	14%	1
MTL I. Demidov	1.2	0	0.58	0	16%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	1	0.80	0	7%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	1	0.36	1	16%	1
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	0	0.28	0	16%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.2	0	0.29	1	5%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.1	2	0.30	1	13%	1
MTL A. Carrier	1.1	1	0.31	0	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	1	0.35	1	12%	1
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	1	0.19	0	4%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.9	1	0.20	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.28	0	6%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.8	0	0.10	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.7	2	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.