Game Recap: MTL 4, NJD 3 (SO), April 4, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL4

Final/SOSat, Apr 4, 2026Every game that night

NJD3

MTL beat NJD 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 4.12 expected goals to 3.88. NJD outshot MTL 38 to 29. T. Meier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Meier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Dobes stopped 35 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
MTL	1	2	0	1	4
NJD	0	2	1	0	3

1st 15:58MTLJ. Struble0.06 xG
2nd 8:12MTLI. DemidovPP0.15 xG
2nd 9:28MTLL. Hutson0.15 xG
2nd 13:08NJDD. Mercer0.06 xG
2nd 17:40NJDJ. HughesSH0.22 xG
3rd 17:45NJDT. Meier0.09 xG

Team Stats

MTLNJD

29Shots on goal38

4.12Expected goals3.88

62Shot attempts58

235v5 shots on goal30

1/5Power play0/1

16Hits17

6Blocked shots13

2Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways13

6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 4.12 xGNJD 3.88 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL29 on goal, 3 scored

NJD38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	22:15	6:37
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	23:55	6:27
I. Demidov	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	2	20:40	6:51
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:46	6:43
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	15:15	1:46
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:06	1:42
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:43	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	14:33	2:02
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:30	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:11	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:06	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	9:48	1:24
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	29:47	6:47
J. Struble	D	1	0	1	1	3	1	+2	0	15:28	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	10:00	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	24:01	0:20
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	22:08	1:55
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	16:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	38	35	3	.921	65:00	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	1	1	2	5	0	3	+1	2	26:26	1:30
T. Meier	RW	1	1	2	7	5	0	+2	0	20:06	0:30
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	23:47	1:30
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	21:47	0:30
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	4	2	0	+1	0	20:24	1:30
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	+1	0	22:17	1:30
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:43	0:00
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	9:39	0:30
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	9:16	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:27	0:00
B. Halonen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:56	0:00
M. McLaughlin	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:34	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	3	3	2	+1	0	22:54	0:30
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	2	18:55	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	27:43	1:30
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	21:08	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:23	0:30
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	15:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	29	26	3	.897	64:53	OT loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:24J. Slafkovský14:25C. Caufield13:33

Line 2J. Anderson13:17J. Evans13:49Z. Bolduc13:24

Line 3A. Newhook12:30O. Kapanen11:47I. Demidov11:17

Line 4P. Danault11:04J. Veleno9:13B. Gallagher8:24

Pair 1M. Matheson19:44N. Dobson17:58

Pair 2L. Hutson19:54J. Struble15:28

Pair 3K. Guhle16:04A. Xhekaj10:00

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt16:15J. Hughes20:17C. Brown16:11

Line 2T. Meier18:10N. Hischier16:10D. Mercer16:12

Line 3C. Glass9:56L. Hameenaho9:09N. Bjugstad9:16

Line 4P. Cotter6:27B. Halonen5:56M. McLaughlin4:34

Pair 1L. Hughes22:26J. Kovacevic15:38

Pair 2D. Hamilton17:15J. Siegenthaler14:39

Pair 3B. Dillon12:36S. Nemec16:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.2, NJD 3.3	MTL 4, NJD 3
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	MTL 25.3, NJD 30.8	MTL 29, NJD 38
Win chance	NJD 52%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.8	5	1.23	2	38%	1
NJD T. Meier	3.3	7	0.66	2	32%	1
MTL C. Caufield	2.7	5	0.81	2	34%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	3	0.85	1	31%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	3	0.52	1	14%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.1	4	0.93	1	26%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.1	4	0.55	0	9%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	2	0.73	0	25%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	1	0.95	1	27%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.0	0	0.56	0	11%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	3	0.50	1	23%	1
NJD C. Brown	1.9	4	0.65	0	22%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.4	0	0.42	0	8%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	1	0.84	1	9%	1
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.4	1	0.30	0	12%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.4	3	0.42	0	19%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.4	4	0.68	1	17%	1
NJD C. Glass	1.4	1	0.34	0	15%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.4	2	0.34	0	10%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	4	0.41	0	18%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	0	0.39	0	17%	0
NJD N. Bjugstad	1.2	1	0.23	0	12%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.2	4	0.28	0	12%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	0	0.28	0	15%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	1	0.39	0	14%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	2	0.35	0	13%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.0	1	0.27	0	7%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	0	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD M. McLaughlin	0.9	0	0.23	0	14%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	0	0.17	1	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD B. Halonen	0.6	0	0.13	0	9%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.6	0	0.17	0	10%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	0	0.07	1	2%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.5	1	0.19	1	3%	1

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.