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Game Recap
MTL3
FinalThu, Apr 2, 2026Every game that night
NYR2

MTL beat NYR 3-2, with the chances close: 3.36 expected goals to 2.73. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). W. Cuylle had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Fowler stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MTL0213
NYR0022
  1. 2nd 4:36MTLA. Newhook0.11 xG
  2. 2nd 6:20MTLC. Caufield0.09 xG
  3. 3rd 9:23NYRA. Fox0.08 xG
  4. 3rd 14:08NYRW. Cuylle0.23 xG
  5. 3rd 14:55MTLC. Caufield0.12 xG

Team Stats

MTLNYR
25Shots on goal24
3.36Expected goals2.73
44Shot attempts56
225v5 shots on goal16
0/2Power play0/3
22Hits27
13Blocked shots5
4Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways18
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.36 xGNYR 2.73 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdMTL goal, 4:36MTL goal, 6:20NYR goal, 9:23NYR goal, 14:08MTL goal, 14:55

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL25 on goal, 3 scored
NYR24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SuzukiC022110+2021:172:01
C. CaufieldRW202700+2016:202:01
J. SlafkovskýLW011201+2420:382:01
A. NewhookC1012000012:321:52
I. DemidovRW0112000012:302:01
J. EvansC0000100019:110:19
J. AndersonRW0003010016:260:09
P. DanaultC000210-1013:580:15
Z. BolducRW0001200013:071:36
O. KapanenC0000200011:541:40
J. VelenoC000020-1010:380:00
B. GallagherRW000210-108:501:39
M. MathesonD0110100023:220:26
L. HutsonD000112+1025:542:01
N. DobsonD000113-1022:431:47
K. GuhleD000144+1018:580:12
J. StrubleD0000410015:570:00
A. XhekajD000011+109:450:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Fowler24222.91760:00Win
J. Dobes000–0:00

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ZibanejadC0110400023:004:00
V. TrocheckC011210+1019:133:51
W. CuylleLW101660+1017:231:47
J. BrodzinskiC011110+1013:271:43
A. LafrenièreLW0004100020:174:09
J. MillerC000100-2018:403:38
G. PerreaultRW0000000016:321:34
C. ShearyLW000220-2014:291:36
T. KartyeLW000120-2013:500:00
N. LabaC0001100212:051:10
J. ChmelarRW000110008:040:04
A. SykoraLW000041007:160:04
A. FoxD101101-1023:103:45
V. GavrikovD0112000021:551:07
B. SchneiderD0000020020:161:28
M. RobertsonD000021-1017:360:00
W. BorgenD000110-1216:470:04
D. FortescueD000110+1014:010:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Shesterkin25223.88057:59Loss
J. Quick000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki17:39J. Slafkovský17:02C. Caufield14:19
Line 2J. Anderson13:16J. Evans14:14Z. Bolduc11:31
Line 3O. Kapanen10:10I. Demidov10:29A. Newhook10:36
Line 4B. Gallagher7:11J. Veleno7:02P. Danault10:19
Pair 1M. Matheson18:59N. Dobson17:49
Pair 2L. Hutson19:58J. Struble15:57
Pair 3K. Guhle13:39A. Xhekaj9:45

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:26G. Perreault14:58A. Lafrenière14:07
Line 2C. Sheary12:10T. Kartye12:23J. Miller11:46
Line 3V. Trocheck11:36J. Brodzinski11:44W. Cuylle13:23
Line 4J. Chmelar8:00N. Laba10:22A. Sykora7:12
Pair 1V. Gavrikov18:19A. Fox17:08
Pair 2W. Borgen15:54M. Robertson15:30
Pair 3B. Schneider15:56D. Fortescue14:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 3.2, NYR 3.1MTL 3, NYR 2
Total goals6.35
Shots on goalMTL 27.4, NYR 26.4MTL 25, NYR 24
Win chanceMTL 52%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MTL C. Caufield2.970.86234%2
NYR M. Zibanejad2.500.91131%0
MTL N. Dobson2.210.54011%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.210.98227%0
NYR A. Lafrenière2.240.74027%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.220.76125%0
NYR J. Miller2.110.97030%0
NYR V. Trocheck2.020.84127%0
NYR W. Cuylle1.860.43120%1
NYR A. Fox1.710.84113%1
MTL M. Matheson1.600.3917%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.600.45020%0
MTL I. Demidov1.520.74118%0
MTL L. Hutson1.510.8109%0
NYR G. Perreault1.500.47016%0
MTL A. Newhook1.420.43118%1
MTL Z. Bolduc1.410.40017%0
NYR V. Gavrikov1.420.3519%0
MTL B. Gallagher1.320.30012%0
NYR B. Schneider1.300.2606%0
NYR T. Kartye1.310.39016%0
NYR M. Robertson1.200.2507%0
NYR C. Sheary1.220.34014%0
NYR J. Brodzinski1.210.28113%0
MTL J. Anderson1.230.28014%0
MTL J. Evans1.200.40013%0
MTL K. Guhle1.110.2706%0
MTL P. Danault1.120.37013%0
NYR W. Borgen1.010.2306%0
NYR N. Laba1.010.31013%0
NYR J. Chmelar1.010.24013%0
MTL J. Veleno0.900.1909%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.600.0702%0
MTL J. Struble0.500.1703%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.