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Game Recap
MTL5
OTT2
MTL beat OTT 5-2, with the chances close: 2.89 expected goals to 2.65. T. Stützle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Slafkovský had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. S. Montembeault stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 2:28MTLB. Gallagher0.17 xG
- 1st 4:28MTLC. Caufield0.17 xG
- 1st 13:20OTTJ. SandersonPP0.07 xG
- 1st 15:54OTTT. Stützle0.09 xG
- 1st 16:13MTLP. LainePP0.11 xG
- 2nd 5:14MTLJ. Anderson0.46 xG
- 2nd 11:32MTLJ. Slafkovský0.18 xG
Team Stats
MTLOTT
25Shots on goal27
2.89Expected goals2.65
57Shot attempts62
205v5 shots on goal18
1/2Power play1/3
39Hits40
11Blocked shots17
13Penalty minutes9
12Giveaways12
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.89 xGOTT 2.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:21 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:25 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:17 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 15:25 | 1:37 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| P. Laine | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:04 | 1:37 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:43 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:43 | 0:47 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:27 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:26 | 1:26 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:02 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:28 | 0:38 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:24 | 3:43 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 18:29 | 2:44 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:40 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 2:47 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 1:15 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16:11 | 1:31 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 2:12 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:21 | 2:47 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:22 | 0:56 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 15 | 10 | 5 | .667 | 31:32 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 10 | 10 | 0 | 1.000 | 28:28 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.8, OTT 3.1 | MTL 5, OTT 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 26.0, OTT 30.7 | MTL 25, OTT 27 |
| Win chance | OTT 56% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.5 | 4 | 0.89 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.4 | 4 | 1.08 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.4 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.2 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 1 | 0.78 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 3 | 0.38 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.6 | 5 | 0.54 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.2 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.9 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT C. Reinhardt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.