OTT beat MTL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.25 expected goals to 2.07. OTT outshot MTL 34 to 22. S. Pinto led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Batherson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. L. Ullmark stopped 20 of 22.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.07 xGOTT 3.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 19:09 | 3:51 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:00 | 3:13 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:23 | 3:18 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:47 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:28 | 0:42 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:18 | 3:13 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:40 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 7:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:11 | 3:15 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:58 | 0:47 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:14 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 59:46 | Loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Greig | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:50 | 3:59 |
| S. Pinto | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:23 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:49 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:55 | 4:02 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 4:12 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 4:27 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 1:33 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:45 | 1:04 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:25 | 1:22 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:02 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:04 | 1:47 |
| H. Hodgson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 7:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:06 | 4:06 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:32 | 0:11 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:19 | 1:54 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:09 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:32 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.1, OTT 3.3 | MTL 2, OTT 5 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 26.8, OTT 30.0 | MTL 22, OTT 34 |
| Win chance | OTT 53% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.4 | 5 | 0.63 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.4 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.4 | 5 | 0.76 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 2.2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.0 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.0 | 4 | 0.88 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.8 | 3 | 0.50 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.7 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT H. Hodgson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.09 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.9 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.