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Game Recap
MTL6
Final/OTSat, Jan 17, 2026Every game that night
OTT5

MTL beat OTT 6-5 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.38 expected goals to 4.28. OTT outshot MTL 34 to 19. J. Sanderson led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). B. Tkachuk had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. S. Montembeault stopped 29 of 34.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
MTL21216
OTT04105
  1. 1st 3:06MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.14 xG
  2. 1st 17:50MTLC. CaufieldPP0.12 xG
  3. 2nd 0:42OTTB. TkachukPP0.27 xG
  4. 2nd 3:07OTTT. Stützle0.07 xG
  5. 2nd 4:26MTLJ. Anderson0.01 xG
  6. 2nd 15:31OTTD. CozensPP0.10 xG
  7. 2nd 18:24OTTD. Perron0.45 xG
  8. 3rd 7:55OTTJ. Sanderson0.16 xG
  9. 3rd 15:36MTLJ. Slafkovský0.08 xG
  10. 3rd 16:41MTLA. Carrier0.02 xG
  11. OT 0:33MTLC. Caufield0.14 xG

Team Stats

MTLOTT
19Shots on goal34
2.38Expected goals4.28
48Shot attempts73
75v5 shots on goal25
2/5Power play2/3
28Hits26
24Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes12
14Giveaways16
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.38 xGOTT 4.28 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTMTL goal, 3:06MTL goal, 17:50OTT goal, 0:42OTT goal, 3:07MTL goal, 4:26OTT goal, 15:31OTT goal, 18:24OTT goal, 7:55MTL goal, 15:36MTL goal, 16:41MTL goal, 0:33

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL18 on goal, 6 scored
OTT33 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. CaufieldRW213300+2019:195:45
N. SuzukiC022320+2021:255:52
J. SlafkovskýLW202242-1020:005:51
J. AndersonRW112221+2212:530:00
I. DemidovRW0112000215:075:53
P. DanaultC011001+2210:590:10
J. VelenoC0001500015:320:00
J. EvansC000001+1015:200:00
O. KapanenC000000-3014:041:45
Z. BolducRW000031-1013:361:44
A. TexierLW0000110012:561:55
B. GallagherRW0000310012:482:02
L. HutsonD033203+1026:226:10
M. MathesonD011125+1023:570:11
N. DobsonD011212-1021:541:37
A. CarrierD1011140017:120:00
K. GuhleD0000310215:420:00
A. XhekajD000011-107:400:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Montembeault34295.85360:12Win
J. Dobes000–0:00

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. StützleC1122110022:132:59
C. GirouxRW011012-2017:351:41
R. GreigC011011-1017:300:29
B. TkachukLW101810-2216:142:24
D. CozensC1012100013:172:07
N. CousinsC011061+2410:500:04
D. PerronLW101200+1210:370:32
L. EllerC011120+109:560:00
S. PintoC000510-1018:140:28
D. BathersonRW0003500214:542:49
M. AmadioRW000100-1013:210:06
F. ZetterlundLW0001300010:360:00
J. SandersonD1343110025:392:58
A. ZubD0110010021:450:00
T. ChabotD000203-1221:420:38
N. JensenD000003-1017:360:00
T. KlevenD000222+1015:570:00
J. SpenceD000210+1014:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Meriläinen19136.68460:33OT loss
J. Reimer000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1J. Veleno14:23J. Evans13:04Z. Bolduc11:47
Line 2N. Suzuki14:31C. Caufield12:55A. Texier9:34
Line 3B. Gallagher10:46J. Anderson12:45P. Danault9:02
Line 4O. Kapanen10:18J. Slafkovský13:53I. Demidov8:58
Pair 1M. Matheson20:45N. Dobson18:08
Pair 2A. Carrier14:52L. Hutson19:16
Pair 3K. Guhle14:03A. Xhekaj7:40

OTT

Line 1C. Giroux11:32S. Pinto11:53R. Greig12:53
Line 2L. Eller9:56N. Cousins10:46D. Perron10:05
Line 3B. Tkachuk13:44T. Stützle15:18M. Amadio12:34
Line 4F. Zetterlund10:27D. Batherson11:32D. Cozens10:58
Pair 1N. Jensen16:54T. Chabot18:15
Pair 2J. Sanderson16:38A. Zub16:11
Pair 3J. Spence13:45T. Kleven13:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 3.0, OTT 3.3MTL 6, OTT 5
Total goals6.411
Shots on goalMTL 23.9, OTT 28.9MTL 19, OTT 34
Win chanceOTT 55%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.680.81131%1
MTL C. Caufield2.830.80332%2
OTT T. Stützle2.320.99230%1
OTT D. Batherson2.230.83028%0
OTT D. Cozens2.220.62122%1
OTT J. Sanderson2.130.69413%1
MTL O. Kapanen2.000.58024%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.030.93227%0
OTT S. Pinto2.050.63026%0
MTL N. Dobson2.020.61113%0
MTL J. Slafkovský1.820.70223%2
OTT T. Chabot1.820.55012%0
MTL A. Texier1.700.52020%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.710.40018%0
OTT C. Giroux1.700.70122%0
OTT R. Greig1.600.42116%0
MTL B. Gallagher1.600.36015%0
OTT D. Perron1.520.52121%1
MTL I. Demidov1.420.79119%0
MTL M. Matheson1.410.44110%0
MTL P. Danault1.400.44114%0
MTL L. Hutson1.320.8439%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.300.38018%0
OTT M. Amadio1.310.42019%0
MTL J. Anderson1.320.31216%1
OTT J. Spence1.220.3706%0
MTL K. Guhle1.100.2708%0
OTT T. Kleven1.020.1703%0
OTT A. Zub1.000.2616%0
OTT N. Cousins1.000.27111%0
MTL J. Veleno0.910.21010%0
OTT L. Eller0.910.23111%0
MTL A. Carrier0.910.3115%1
MTL J. Evans0.800.31010%0
OTT N. Jensen0.800.2505%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.700.0803%0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.