Game Recap: MTL 3, OTT 2, March 11, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

MTL3

FinalWed, Mar 11, 2026Every game that night

OTT2

MTL beat OTT 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.38 expected goals to 3.49. OTT outshot MTL 34 to 23. D. Batherson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Giroux had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Fowler stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	1	1	3
OTT	2	0	0	2

1st 1:16MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.21 xG
1st 16:42OTTD. BathersonPP0.83 xG
1st 18:41OTTD. Batherson0.07 xG
2nd 17:29MTLA. Texier0.09 xG
3rd 12:40MTLI. Demidov0.55 xG

Team Stats

MTLOTT

23Shots on goal34

4.38Expected goals3.49

52Shot attempts68

225v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play1/3

31Hits33

25Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes6

24Giveaways9

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 4.38 xGOTT 3.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL23 on goal, 3 scored

OTT33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Demidov	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	2	12:50	1:26
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	19:45	1:42
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	19:43	1:42
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	7	1	+1	0	17:21	0:00
A. Texier	LW	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	14:49	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:04	0:42
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:33	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	14:30	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	14:14	1:35
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:34	0:42
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	11:03	0:42
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:48	0:41
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+1	4	23:30	1:42
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	-1	0	23:19	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	23:39	0:49
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	22:59	0:17
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	15:34	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	+2	0	9:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	34	32	2	.941	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	0	21:16	3:28
D. Batherson	RW	2	0	2	4	6	1	+1	2	18:55	2:43
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	0	16:26	3:09
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	14:42	1:08
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	5	5	0	0	2	17:07	3:03
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	2	16:36	1:28
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	-2	0	16:09	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:45	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	13:05	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	11:34	0:43
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:29	1:02
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:04	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	4	1	4	-1	0	28:32	3:14
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:30	0:45
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	20:18	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	19:49	0:12
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:28	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	23	20	3	.870	57:38	Loss
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:57J. Slafkovský15:48A. Texier14:12

Line 2K. Dach11:54J. Evans12:29Z. Bolduc10:21

Line 3A. Newhook12:06O. Kapanen11:20I. Demidov11:08

Line 4P. Danault11:01J. Anderson11:27B. Gallagher8:07

Pair 1M. Matheson18:08N. Dobson19:08

Pair 2K. Guhle19:43L. Hutson20:14

Pair 3A. Carrier11:10J. Struble9:12

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson13:50T. Stützle13:33C. Giroux11:12

Line 2M. Amadio14:33S. Pinto13:57N. Cousins13:05

Line 3B. Tkachuk11:18D. Cozens11:55R. Greig12:37

Line 4L. Eller9:11W. Foegele9:46F. Zetterlund10:51

Pair 1J. Spence18:19T. Kleven18:06

Pair 2T. Chabot19:36A. Zub17:00

Pair 3N. Jensen12:45N. Matinpalo11:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.8, OTT 3.6	MTL 3, OTT 2
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	MTL 22.4, OTT 29.9	MTL 23, OTT 34
Win chance	OTT 62%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.6	5	0.87	1	32%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	1	1.05	2	31%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	5	0.68	0	24%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	2	0.69	0	28%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	4	0.82	2	28%	2
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	4	0.67	0	14%	0
OTT W. Foegele	2.0	1	0.44	0	21%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	2	0.88	1	25%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	1	0.67	1	23%	1
MTL N. Dobson	1.8	2	0.50	0	11%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.8	1	0.50	0	19%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	2	0.52	0	23%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.5	2	0.44	1	17%	1
MTL O. Kapanen	1.4	0	0.40	0	19%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.4	5	0.62	1	20%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.4	2	0.41	0	8%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.4	3	0.69	2	17%	1
OTT N. Cousins	1.4	0	0.38	0	14%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.3	1	0.30	0	13%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.3	0	0.41	0	7%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.3	2	0.31	0	14%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.3	2	0.81	1	10%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.2	0	0.38	0	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.2	2	0.37	1	16%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	2	0.22	0	5%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.2	2	0.36	0	14%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	1	0.29	0	15%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	0	0.38	0	13%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.33	0	6%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	1	0.29	1	8%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.37	1	13%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	0	0.14	0	3%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.8	0	0.25	0	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	0	0.28	0	5%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	2	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.