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Game Recap
MTL2
FinalTue, Apr 14, 2026Every game that night
PHI4

PHI beat MTL 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.12 expected goals to 2.70. M. Michkov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Caufield had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. S. Ersson stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MTL0202
PHI2114
  1. 1st 8:08PHIP. Martone0.34 xG
  2. 1st 14:42PHIO. Bonk0.03 xG
  3. 2nd 6:50MTLB. Gallagher0.10 xG
  4. 2nd 13:52PHIM. Michkov0.12 xG
  5. 2nd 19:49MTLJ. Evans0.26 xG
  6. 3rd 12:00PHIA. Bump0.29 xG

Team Stats

MTLPHI
29Shots on goal25
2.70Expected goals2.12
59Shot attempts35
245v5 shots on goal23
0/3Power play0/0
26Hits21
7Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes10
10Giveaways21
3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.70 xGPHI 2.12 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdPHI goal, 8:08PHI goal, 14:42MTL goal, 6:50PHI goal, 13:52MTL goal, 19:49PHI goal, 12:00

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL29 on goal, 2 scored
PHI24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. TexierLW011010+1216:542:44
B. GallagherRW101110+1011:340:00
J. EvansC1013200011:150:00
J. VelenoC0110500010:160:00
N. SuzukiC0001000022:543:16
J. SlafkovskýLW000210-3022:293:16
C. CaufieldRW0001010-1021:213:16
I. DemidovRW000101-1020:063:16
A. NewhookC000120-1015:390:36
Z. BolducRW000141-1012:572:08
O. KapanenC0001000012:162:44
K. DachC0000000211:082:06
A. XhekajD011252-1019:460:20
K. GuhleD011330+1017:200:09
L. HutsonD000003-1026:083:16
J. StrubleD000100-1017:170:29
A. EngstromD000110-1015:282:24
D. ReinbacherD000100-1015:000:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Dobes25214.84056:12Loss
J. Fowler000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MichkovRW123801+2016:180:00
P. MartoneRW112520+1017:370:00
A. BumpLW101121+1016:530:00
T. FoersterRW0002010218:170:00
N. CatesLW0002210017:500:00
D. BarkeyC0000100017:380:00
L. GlendeningC000000+1014:570:00
C. GrundstromRW0001300013:100:00
G. HathawayRW0000020012:430:00
J. GaucherC000110008:560:00
G. WilsonLW000110+107:530:00
A. RichardC000000007:080:00
O. BonkD112120+1016:280:00
H. McDonaldD011051+3415:110:00
N. SeelerD000116-1226:320:00
N. JuulsenD000011+1021:450:00
E. AndraeD0001010021:190:00
D.JiricekD0001000219:370:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Ersson29272.93159:48Win
A. Kolosov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki14:47J. Slafkovský14:35C. Caufield13:09
Line 2A. Texier13:49A. Newhook12:46I. Demidov12:17
Line 3B. Gallagher11:34J. Evans11:15J. Veleno10:16
Line 4Z. Bolduc10:49O. Kapanen9:32K. Dach9:02
Pair 1J. Struble16:05A. Xhekaj18:41
Pair 2K. Guhle16:52A. Engstrom12:20
Pair 3L. Hutson18:19D. Reinbacher13:52

PHI

Line 1D. Barkey16:44A. Bump16:20P. Martone15:24
Line 2M. Michkov14:40T. Foerster14:06N. Cates12:46
Line 3G. Wilson7:53L. Glendening10:08G. Hathaway8:17
Line 4C. Grundstrom11:29A. Richard7:08J. Gaucher8:16
Pair 1N. Seeler20:12D.Jiricek18:29
Pair 2N. Juulsen14:52E. Andrae17:56
Pair 3O. Bonk12:44H. McDonald12:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 3.3, PHI 2.9MTL 2, PHI 4
Total goals6.26
Shots on goalMTL 23.9, PHI 26.6MTL 29, PHI 25
Win chanceMTL 55%PHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MTL C. Caufield2.8100.91037%0
PHI P. Martone2.550.58218%1
MTL J. Slafkovský2.120.82027%0
MTL N. Suzuki1.911.02028%0
PHI T. Foerster1.920.52026%0
PHI M. Michkov1.980.61322%1
MTL I. Demidov1.510.75021%0
PHI N. Cates1.520.52018%0
MTL L. Hutson1.400.96012%0
PHI C. Grundstrom1.410.24014%0
MTL A. Newhook1.310.45019%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.310.43018%0
PHI A. Bump1.210.39115%1
MTL A. Texier1.200.37115%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.210.38018%0
PHI A. Richard1.200.42016%0
MTL B. Gallagher1.210.29113%1
MTL K. Dach1.100.35014%0
PHI D. Barkey1.000.36012%0
MTL K. Guhle1.030.2918%0
PHI N. Seeler1.010.1504%0
MTL J. Evans1.030.37113%1
PHI L. Glendening0.900.1508%0
PHI J. Gaucher0.810.1207%0
MTL J. Veleno0.800.18110%0
PHI G. Hathaway0.800.18010%0
MTL A. Engstrom0.710.1203%0
PHI D.Jiricek0.610.1202%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.620.0913%0
MTL J. Struble0.610.2204%0
PHI E. Andrae0.610.1302%0
PHI N. Juulsen0.500.1102%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.