Game Recap: MTL 1, PIT 3, November 2, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

MTL1

FinalSat, Nov 2, 2024Every game that night

PIT3

PIT beat MTL 3-1, with the chances close: 2.28 expected goals to 1.82. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Nedeljkovic stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	0	1	1
PIT	1	1	1	3

1st 15:57PITS. Crosby0.14 xG
2nd 18:40PITS. CrosbyPP0.06 xG
3rd 5:32MTLC. Dvorak0.33 xG
3rd 19:15PITB. LizotteEN0.44 xG

Team Stats

MTLPIT

26Shots on goal24

1.82Expected goals2.28

53Shot attempts63

245v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play1/2

28Hits19

24Blocked shots19

13Penalty minutes11

20Giveaways14

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 1.82 xGPIT 2.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL23 on goal, 1 scored

PIT24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	0	17:08	2:30
C. Dvorak	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	13:34	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	10:12	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	20:01	2:17
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	19:37	2:40
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	19:06	2:28
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	14:46	1:30
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:36	1:20
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	13:49	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:40	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	12:46	1:32
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:09	1:43
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	25:41	2:34
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	24:19	1:26
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	22:04	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	1	2	5	0	2	19:44	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	5	12:23	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	6	12:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	23	21	2	.913	58:15	Loss
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	0	20:02	2:07
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	19:22	1:30
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	17:51	2:01
B. Lizotte	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	9:10	0:00
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	19:17	2:24
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	18:30	0:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:41	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:21	1:50
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:26	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:33	0:00
V. Puustinen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	10:08	1:53
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:13	1:47
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	2	21:14	1:49
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	4	0	3	0	0	20:56	2:04
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	0	22:38	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:56	2:05
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	5	16:52	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
J. Blomqvist	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, PIT 3.8	MTL 1, PIT 3
Total goals	6.9	4
Shots on goal	MTL 27.5, PIT 36.2	MTL 26, PIT 24
Win chance	PIT 62%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	3.4	3	1.32	2	39%	2
MTL C. Caufield	3.3	2	0.76	0	32%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.9	1	0.76	1	29%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.7	2	1.09	0	33%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.6	4	0.89	1	16%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.3	1	0.72	1	13%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	2.3	2	0.51	0	23%	0
PIT M. Bunting	2.2	2	0.65	0	23%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	1	0.85	0	27%	0
PIT L. Eller	2.1	1	0.48	1	20%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	2.1	2	0.43	0	18%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.0	0	0.72	0	12%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	3	0.64	1	20%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.9	1	0.36	0	17%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.9	0	0.37	0	15%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.9	1	0.44	0	16%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.7	2	0.50	0	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.6	1	0.32	0	16%	0
PIT V. Puustinen	1.4	2	0.39	0	12%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.4	0	0.48	0	5%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	2	0.46	0	18%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.4	1	0.32	0	13%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.3	2	0.24	0	7%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.3	0	0.37	0	5%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	1	0.39	0	8%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	1	0.26	0	15%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.2	2	0.21	0	10%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.40	0	12%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.30	1	12%	1
MTL E. Heineman	1.0	0	0.22	1	12%	0
PIT R. Graves	1.0	1	0.23	0	5%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.0	1	0.56	0	5%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.0	3	0.34	1	12%	1
PIT J. Ivany	1.0	1	0.12	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.9	2	0.22	0	5%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	1	0.36	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.