Game Recap: MTL 0, STL 2, January 3, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

MTL0

FinalSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night

STL2

STL beat MTL 2-0 despite fewer good chances: 3.15 expected goals to 3.70. B. Gallagher had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Binnington stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	0	0	0
STL	1	1	0	2

1st 10:48STLJ. Berggren0.15 xG
2nd 10:13STLR. ThomasSH0.11 xG

Team Stats

MTLSTL

26Shots on goal19

3.70Expected goals3.15

65Shot attempts37

175v5 shots on goal17

0/4Power play0/2

15Hits16

10Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways16

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.70 xGSTL 3.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL26 on goal, 0 scored

STL19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	3	0	1	-1	0	24:21	4:24
C. Caufield	RW	4	0	0	0	0	21:54	4:08
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	0	-1	0	20:29	4:20
I. Demidov	RW	2	1	1	-1	0	19:38	4:18
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	15:48	1:44
A. Texier	LW	0	1	1	0	0	15:28	1:44
P. Danault	C	2	2	0	-1	0	15:22	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	7	1	0	-2	2	14:19	2:08
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	2	0	-1	0	14:03	1:55
J. Veleno	C	0	1	0	0	0	9:14	0:05
O. Beck	C	0	1	0	0	0	8:02	0:00
S. Blais	LW	1	0	0	0	0	6:43	0:01
L. Hutson	D	2	0	3	-1	0	28:03	3:02
N. Dobson	D	3	0	0	0	2	27:23	3:14
M. Matheson	D	0	1	3	0	0	21:22	0:08
A. Carrier	D	0	2	0	0	0	20:12	0:09
J. Struble	D	0	1	0	-1	0	9:31	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	2	1	-1	0	7:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	19	17	2	.895	56:15	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	22:33	2:25
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	14:33	0:00
O. Stenberg	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	13:43	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:21	1:36
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	17:30	1:34
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	17:11	1:25
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:32	2:23
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	15:13	2:22
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	14:06	1:27
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	11:59	2:14
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:57	0:00
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:04	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	18:22	2:24
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24:59	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	2	22:31	0:06
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	20:47	1:29
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	15:19	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	26	26	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:41C. Caufield15:04A. Texier12:26

Line 2P. Danault12:48Z. Bolduc11:29B. Gallagher11:32

Line 3J. Slafkovský13:03O. Kapanen11:36I. Demidov12:14

Line 4J. Veleno7:02O. Beck8:02S. Blais6:42

Pair 1M. Matheson17:45N. Dobson19:52

Pair 2A. Carrier17:03L. Hutson20:44

Pair 3J. Struble9:31A. Xhekaj7:21

STL

Line 1J. Kyrou12:12J. Neighbours14:21R. Thomas14:23

Line 2B. Schenn13:34J. Snuggerud13:04P. Buchnevich12:02

Line 3J. Berggren9:45D. Dvorsky9:45O. Stenberg10:28

Line 4M. Joseph9:21A. Toropchenko9:41R. Fabbri9:25

Pair 1C. Parayko17:08P. Broberg18:06

Pair 2J. Faulk15:45T. Tucker13:46

Pair 3C. Fowler14:32L. Mailloux12:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamZachary Bolduc MTL Faces STL, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.1, STL 2.8	MTL 0, STL 2
Total goals	5.9	2
Shots on goal	MTL 25.7, STL 24.4	MTL 26, STL 19
Win chance	MTL 54%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	4	0.82	0	34%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.2	3	0.65	0	12%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.2	3	0.66	0	28%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	3	0.95	0	29%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	1	0.68	0	24%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.9	0	0.52	0	22%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	0	0.49	0	12%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	3	0.72	0	25%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.7	0	0.48	0	9%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	2	0.96	1	24%	1
STL J. Snuggerud	1.6	1	0.48	0	18%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	7	0.38	0	16%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	2	0.90	0	8%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	1	0.45	0	21%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.5	2	0.56	0	21%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.5	0	0.40	0	17%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.4	2	0.80	0	20%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	2	0.58	0	25%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	0	0.38	0	10%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	0	0.38	0	9%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	2	0.43	0	15%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	1	0.30	0	16%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.3	1	0.40	1	17%	1
STL R. Fabbri	1.3	1	0.36	0	17%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	2	0.28	1	12%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	0	0.45	1	8%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.1	0	0.20	0	6%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.0	0	0.31	0	10%	0
STL O. Stenberg	1.0	1	0.42	1	13%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.0	0	0.18	0	6%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	0	0.30	0	5%	0
MTL O. Beck	0.9	0	0.15	0	9%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.8	0	0.10	0	3%	0
MTL S. Blais	0.7	1	0.23	0	8%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.6	0	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.