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Game Recap
MTL5
TBL2
MTL beat TBL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.83 expected goals to 2.48. MTL outshot TBL 37 to 23. J. Armia led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Xhekaj had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Montembeault stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| TBL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 12:07MTLA. Newhook0.18 xG
- 2nd 0:37TBLB. Hagel0.13 xG
- 2nd 12:34MTLC. Dvorak0.06 xG
- 2nd 18:28MTLJ. Evans0.14 xG
- 2nd 18:54TBLN. Kucherov0.20 xG
- 3rd 12:32MTLJ. Armia0.20 xG
- 3rd 18:08MTLB. GallagherEN0.68 xG
Team Stats
MTLTBL
37Shots on goal23
3.83Expected goals2.48
63Shot attempts52
335v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/3
20Hits19
17Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes4
4Giveaways6
6Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 3.83 xGTBL 2.48 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Armia | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:20 |
| A. Newhook | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:50 | 1:45 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:05 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:00 | 1:43 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:52 | 1:00 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 2:17 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 2:19 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:15 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:33 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:43 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:06 | 1:38 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:56 | 2:22 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:05 | 5:18 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:22 | 5:23 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:44 | 5:20 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:40 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:37 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:25 | 5:07 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:38 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:05 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:27 | 0:42 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:47 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:18 | 4:59 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:28 | 0:14 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:14 | 0:02 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:08 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 36 | 32 | 4 | .889 | 59:02 | Loss |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 3.0, TBL 4.0 | MTL 5, TBL 2 |
| Total goals | 7.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 25.8, TBL 30.6 | MTL 37, TBL 23 |
| Win chance | TBL 65% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.8 | 2 | 1.50 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.7 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | 4 | 1.23 | 1 | 45% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 4 | 1.07 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 0 | 0.96 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.1 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.7 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 4 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.4 | 4 | 0.35 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.2 | 5 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 3 | 0.26 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.