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Game Recap
MTL4
TBL5
TBL beat MTL 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 4.24 expected goals to 4.74. MTL outshot TBL 35 to 21. J. Slafkovský led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). O. Kapanen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Johansson stopped 31 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| TBL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 2nd 2:28TBLN. Kucherov0.24 xG
- 2nd 12:11TBLN. Kucherov0.29 xG
- 2nd 14:49TBLN. Paul0.05 xG
- 3rd 1:06MTLI. Demidov0.20 xG
- 3rd 1:40TBLP. Holmberg0.05 xG
- 3rd 9:16MTLJ. Slafkovský0.09 xG
- 3rd 12:17MTLN. Dobson0.02 xG
- 3rd 19:56MTLJ. Slafkovský0.08 xG
Team Stats
MTLTBL
35Shots on goal21
4.74Expected goals4.24
86Shot attempts47
285v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play0/1
26Hits17
11Blocked shots23
7Penalty minutes13
12Giveaways18
8Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 4.74 xGTBL 4.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:27 | 4:09 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:26 | 4:08 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:42 | 4:08 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 3:24 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:43 | 4:04 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:18 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 3:36 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:18 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:34 | 3:38 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 3:35 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:11 |
| S. Blais | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27:29 | 3:47 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 28:13 | 4:08 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:37 | 0:29 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:07 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 7:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Fowler | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 63:43 | OT loss |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:48 | 1:32 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:39 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:27 | 1:13 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:13 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:05 | 0:46 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:01 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:25 | 0:46 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:42 | 1:13 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:33 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:01 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:01 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2:20 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:38 | 0:34 |
| M. Groshev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:44 | 1:27 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:28 | 0:01 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 23:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 35 | 31 | 4 | .886 | 65:00 | Win |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki15:06C. Caufield14:43Z. Bolduc13:12
Line 2P. Danault14:08J. Anderson14:38A. Texier10:56
Line 3J. Slafkovský13:01O. Kapanen11:35I. Demidov11:32
Line 4S. Blais8:22J. Veleno8:52B. Gallagher10:07
Pair 1M. Matheson23:39N. Dobson20:51
Pair 2A. Carrier17:32L. Hutson19:15
Pair 3J. Struble8:51A. Xhekaj7:15
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde12:43Z. Girgensons12:02P. Holmberg12:24
Line 2O. Bjorkstrand12:14N. Paul13:15G. Goncalves13:12
Line 3N. Kucherov15:39B. Point13:30J. Guentzel14:15
Line 4A. Cirelli10:54B. Hagel13:09
Pair 1M. Crozier21:02D. Carlile16:58
Pair 2D. Raddysh15:37J. Moser15:58
Pair 3C. D'Astous15:23M. Groshev13:00
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.7, TBL 3.2 | MTL 4, TBL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 23.9, TBL 27.2 | MTL 35, TBL 21 |
| Win chance | TBL 58% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 3 | 1.49 | 2 | 36% | 2 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.0 | 0 | 1.14 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.7 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 0 | 1.01 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.3 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.1 | 5 | 0.51 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 5 | 0.56 | 3 | 21% | 2 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.8 | 1 | 0.63 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.8 | 5 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.5 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.4 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.62 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL S. Blais | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.