Game Recap: MTL 4, TBL 1, March 31, 2026

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Game Recap

MTL4

FinalTue, Mar 31, 2026Every game that night

TBL1

MTL beat TBL 4-1, with the chances close: 3.03 expected goals to 3.44. TBL outshot MTL 37 to 23. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Cernak had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. J. Dobes stopped 36 of 37.

Team Stats

MTLTBL

23Shots on goal37

3.03Expected goals3.44

41Shot attempts64

175v5 shots on goal24

1/3Power play0/4

23Hits21

17Blocked shots9

32Penalty minutes30

8Giveaways17

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.03 xGTBL 3.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL21 on goal, 3 scored

TBL37 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	1	2	1	2	2	+2	0	19:12	3:22
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	17:05	3:18
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	5	1	1	+2	2	20:27	3:21
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:43	2:50
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	14:45	0:38
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	14:43	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	2	14:43	0:01
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:30	0:38
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	13:03	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	6	12:31	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	10:37	0:42
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8:18	0:38
M. Matheson	D	1	1	2	2	1	2	+2	0	23:28	0:01
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	26:11	3:21
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	21:45	0:44
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	2	18:14	0:05
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	4	13:48	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	37	36	1	.973	60:00	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	-1	6	21:06	6:52
Z. Girgensons	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	12:42	0:09
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-3	4	23:10	6:22
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-3	0	22:21	6:52
B. Point	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	20:32	6:52
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	15:49	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	14:19	0:09
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	13:43	0:30
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:15	0:09
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	10:47	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:50	0:27
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	9:05	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	19:33	0:09
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	23:35	6:25
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:55	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	17:23	0:27
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	6	17:17	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	5	3	1	0	2	15:58	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	21	19	2	.905	57:40	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki16:01J. Slafkovský14:54C. Caufield13:00

Line 2A. Newhook12:47I. Demidov12:13O. Kapanen11:45

Line 3J. Anderson10:52J. Evans10:23Z. Bolduc9:55

Line 4P. Danault11:43J. Veleno8:24B. Gallagher7:20

Pair 1M. Matheson16:30N. Dobson16:19

Pair 2L. Hutson19:26J. Struble13:48

Pair 3K. Guhle14:49A. Xhekaj12:11

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli12:09B. Hagel12:05N. Kucherov14:59

Line 2Y. Gourde12:14Z. Girgensons11:26P. Holmberg11:06

Line 3J. Guentzel12:21B. Point12:53G. Goncalves12:14

Line 4S. Sabourin9:05N. Paul10:09C. Perry8:29

Pair 1D. Raddysh16:14J. Moser16:48

Pair 2C. D'Astous15:31E. Lilleberg15:32

Pair 3R. McDonagh16:21E. Cernak12:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 3.0, TBL 3.6	MTL 4, TBL 1
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	MTL 25.3, TBL 29.1	MTL 23, TBL 37
Win chance	TBL 60%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	6	1.61	0	37%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.9	5	1.09	0	35%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.8	2	0.80	0	16%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.7	4	0.77	2	32%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	2	0.99	1	36%	1
TBL B. Point	2.2	5	0.97	0	37%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	0	0.52	0	11%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	1	0.67	2	23%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	5	0.88	1	25%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.9	1	0.73	0	25%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.5	1	0.60	0	20%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.5	1	0.41	0	19%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	2	0.35	2	8%	1
MTL I. Demidov	1.4	2	0.66	1	18%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.4	0	0.39	0	17%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	4	0.45	0	15%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	0	0.73	0	9%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.4	0	0.29	0	12%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	2	0.40	0	17%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	1	0.32	0	7%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.3	0	0.40	0	19%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	1	0.22	1	12%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	3	0.33	0	14%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.2	0	0.33	0	16%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.37	0	13%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	0	0.26	0	7%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.1	3	0.25	0	13%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	1	0.33	0	12%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	0	0.42	0	7%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	1	0.35	1	6%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.17	0	9%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	5	0.19	0	4%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	0	0.06	0	2%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.5	0	0.18	0	6%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.5	1	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.